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G'day
This week's Fodder is back to its normal "mixed bag" of opinions and papers.
We kick off with Nouriel Roubini who is surprisingly upbeat (for him), noting
there appears to be
good reasons why global markets have reacted benignly to today's
geopolitical risks - before listing out scenarios that could change
all that. To
work out how to take geopolitical risks into account when building
portfolios, look no further than Marko Papic's excellent
presentation from our recent Conference and his related paper "A
primer on geopolitics and investing". Anatole finishes off his
five-part series on why he believes we're in a structural bull
market in equities
that will last into the next decade - in this last piece, he writes
that
while things are looking a lot like 1987, it's time to "prepare
for the possibility that the next boom-bust cycle, instead of
approaching its climax, is only just beginning". Angela Ashton
reviews the latest
paper on retirement income planning from Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau.
Their prior paper on the topic had its critics and this paper addresses
a lot of the issues raised. And last, but |
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by no means least, Ron Temple from Lazard updates us on his
thinking about the US, China and the emerging markets - picking up
where he left off from his top rated presentation at the Markets Summit
in February.
All the best for some great (long) weekend learning - Graham
P.S. Plus, don't forget to review the
Conference
2014 Resources Kit.
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LATEST...
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Markets' rational complacency
An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets
this year. While geopolitical risks have multiplied, markets remain
buoyant, if not downright bubbly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
| Opinion
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Geopolitical risks (and rewards) - the impact on portfolios
If geopolitics is far more important in considering investment markets
today, how do we integrate geopolitics into portfolio construction?
Marko Papic, BCA Research
| Resources
*** Rated in top 10 by delegates at Conference 2014 ***
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Hearing echoes of 1987
Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were
at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for
investors to panic, or even reduce risk.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| Opinion
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Retirement risk, rising equity glidepaths & valuation-based AA
The dynamic duo (Kitces and Pfau) are back in their search for the
ultimate truth about retirement income planning and how to structure
portfolios to minimise drawdowns.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Research
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An update on the route and destination
In the US, despite moderate growth, we see very attractive valuations
while many emerging markets are undervalued. But 7% growth in China is
unrealistic.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
| Opinion
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RECENTLY...
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Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (& Relating)
The last decade has seen a distinct disconnect between investment risk
and return, versus what we're taught should be the case.
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Resources
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Quiescent markets – why is volatility so low?
With global volatility at multi decade
lows, the critical question is should we be worried or relaxed? What next? In fact,
quiescent markets should be feared, not embraced.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| Resources
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Risk & return: Two investment approaches
If risk and return are imperfectly linked, there is opportunity to
increase average return, without increasing risk - particularly in
equity markets where risk is mispriced.
Ryan Taliaferro, Acadian Asset Management
| Resources
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The power of the 3rd R
To flourish in the robo-advice era, portfolio construction practitioners
must provide clients with a positive Return on Attention (ROA), Intimacy
(ROI) and Empathy (ROE).
Dr David Lazenby, ScenarioNow Inc
| Resources
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Lengthening the investment time horizon
Company fundamentals don't change nearly as much as equity market prices
- and therein lies an opportunity for investors with a longer-term view.
Sanjay Natarajan, MFS Investment Management
| Resources
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PLUS...
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date - follow us @PortfolioForum
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