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PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

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 Friday 03 October 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

This week's Fodder is back to its normal "mixed bag" of opinions and papers. We kick off with Nouriel Roubini who is surprisingly upbeat (for him), noting there appears to be good reasons why global markets have reacted benignly to today's geopolitical risks - before listing out scenarios that could change all that. To work out how to take geopolitical risks into account when building portfolios, look no further than Marko Papic's excellent presentation from our recent Conference and his related paper "A primer on geopolitics and investing".  Anatole finishes off his five-part series on why he believes we're in a structural bull market in equities that will last into the next decade - in this last piece, he writes that while things are looking a lot like 1987, it's time to "prepare for the possibility that the next boom-bust cycle, instead of approaching its climax, is only just beginning". Tony Vidler highlights research that shows that retirement income planning is the service investors will value most in the next five years... and right on cue, Angela Ashton reviews the latest paper on retirement income planning from Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau. Their prior paper on the topic had its critics and this paper addresses a lot of the issues raised. And last, but

by no means least, Ron Temple from Lazard updates us on his thinking about the US, China and the emerging markets - picking up where he left off from his top rated presentation at the Markets Summit in February.
All the best for some great (long) weekend learning - Graham
P.S. Plus, don't forget to review the Conference 2014 Resources Kit.

LATEST...

Markets' rational complacency
An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets this year. While geopolitical risks have multiplied, markets remain buoyant, if not downright bubbly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
Opinion

Geopolitical risks (and rewards) - the impact on portfolios
If geopolitics is far more important in considering investment markets today, how do we integrate geopolitics into portfolio construction?
Marko Papic, BCA Research
Resources
*** Rated in top 10 by delegates at Conference 2014 ***

Hearing echoes of 1987
Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for investors to panic, or even reduce risk.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
Opinion

The future value proposition for financial planning
Investment management has long been the backbone of financial planning. But is it the future for financial advisers? I think not.
Tony Vidler, Strictly Business
Opinion

Retirement risk, rising equity glidepaths & valuation-based AA
The dynamic duo (Kitces and Pfau) are back in their search for the ultimate truth about retirement income planning and how to structure portfolios to minimise drawdowns.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

An update on the route and destination
In the US, despite moderate growth, we see very attractive valuations while many emerging markets are undervalued. But 7% growth in China is unrealistic.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
Opinion  

RECENTLY...

Reconnecting the three Rs - Risk & Return (& Relating)
The last decade has seen a distinct disconnect between investment risk and return, versus what we're taught should be the case.
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Resources

Quiescent markets – why is volatility so low?
With global volatility at multi decade lows, the critical question is should we be worried or relaxed? What next? In fact, quiescent markets should be feared, not embraced.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
Resources

Risk & return: Two investment approaches
If risk and return are imperfectly linked, there is opportunity to increase average return, without increasing risk - particularly in equity markets where risk is mispriced.
Ryan Taliaferro, Acadian Asset Management
Resources  

The power of the 3rd R
To flourish in the robo-advice era, portfolio construction practitioners must provide clients with a positive Return on Attention (ROA), Intimacy (ROI) and Empathy (ROE).
Dr David Lazenby, ScenarioNow Inc
Resources

Lengthening the investment time horizon
Company fundamentals don't change nearly as much as equity market prices - and therein lies an opportunity for investors with a longer-term view.
Sanjay Natarajan, MFS Investment Management
Resources

PLUS...

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