Forum Fodder

PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

Our regular Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and with our live professional development progams. A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.  Become a Member (with our compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white papers, opinion papers and special interest
   subscription services from local and international investment professionals and subject matter experts; and,
- CPD Campus - our online portfolio construction learning and accreditation resource.


 


 Friday 17 October 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

What a week it's been for markets - and, not surprisingly, this week's Fodder has a distinct markets focus. As GaveKal notes, the German word Torschlusspanik (literally gate-shut-panic) sums things up perfectly. Taking a bigger picture perspective (and written before the market rout this week), Dominic McCormick warns that while historically, three or four rate rises have been the prelude to major market falls, relying on that indicator going forward may be very dangerous as things may well actually be different this time - and right on cue, markets may have proved him right. So has market volatility finally turned for good? Longview Economic's Chris Watling argued so in his recent Conference presentation, and this week we publish his supporting white paper on why equity volatility has passed its low for this cycle. On a more optimistic note, Dr Robert Gay looks at why China's economic agenda has changed dramatically - and with it the policy framework of its central bank, as it lays the groundwork for the transition to a flexible currency. We highlight Schroders' Alan Brown excellent insight from our recent Conference, in which he argues that thinking conventional tools will keep us out of trouble may be a big mistake (echo'ing Dom's warning about relying on what's worked in the past). And, be sure to read Angela Ashton's review of a new research paper by two Australian

academics that advocates the use of glide paths to best manage sequencing risk i.e. the risk of poor returns right before or after retirement - which, if Chris is right, is going a key risk for portfolios going forward.
All the best for some great weekend learning - Graham

LATEST...

US rate signal may be broken
Relying on Fed tightening to predict the next serious sharemarket weakness may be very dangerous.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
Opinion

Torschlusspanik!
The German word for what we saw in markets this week is Torschlusspanik. Literally "gate-shut-panic", it describes the nasty crush when everyone rushes at once for an exit.
GaveKal
Opinion

Market volatility – has it turned?
Earlier this year, volatility across a whole range of key global assets reached major multi-year lows. But, equity volatility, we expect, has passed it's low for this cycle.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
White Paper  

China’s Gordian Policy Knot
China has about five years to lay the groundwork for the transition to a new monetary policy framework with a currency that is sufficiently flexible. No other course is viable.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
White Paper

Prepare to change course
Warning, there may be rocks ahead. Reconnecting risk and return must surely be the right focus - but thinking conventional tools will keep us out of trouble may be a big mistake.
Alan Brown, Schroders
Insight

Down the retirement risk zone with gun and camera
This is a particularly relevant review of literature on sequencing risk, considering as it does the impact of Australia's age pension on retirement spending strategies.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

RECENTLY...

Markets' rational complacency
An increasingly obvious paradox has emerged in global financial markets this year. While geopolitical risks have multiplied, markets remain buoyant, if not downright bubbly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
Opinion

Geopolitical risks (and rewards) - the impact on portfolios
If geopolitics is far more important in considering investment markets today, how do we integrate geopolitics into portfolio construction?
Marko Papic, BCA Research
Resources
*** Rated in top 10 by delegates at Conference 2014 ***

Hearing echoes of 1987
Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for investors to panic, or even reduce risk.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
Opinion 1 comment

The future value proposition for financial planning
Investment management has long been the backbone of financial planning. But is it the future for financial advisers? I think not.
Tony Vidler, Strictly Business
Opinion 2 comments

Retirement risk, rising equity glidepaths & valuation-based AA
The dynamic duo (Kitces and Pfau) are back in their search for the ultimate truth about retirement income planning and how to structure portfolios to minimise drawdowns.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Research

An update on the route and destination
In the US, despite moderate growth, we see very attractive valuations while many emerging markets are undervalued. But 7% growth in China is unrealistic.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
Opinion  

PLUS...

Keep up to date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with PortfolioConstruction Forum. Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles on PortfolioConstruction.com.au and registration opens for our live programs.

 

 

 

Join The Debate

Use the Comments and Questions area below to share your comments/questions.
Follow us on Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles on PortfolioConstruction.com.au