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 Friday 14 November 2014

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners

G'day

It's not often that you hear someone downplaying the importance of Yellen, Dragi, Kuroda, et al - but that's what Harvard's Ken Rogoff does in this week's Fodder, suggesting that the media attention given to central bankers' pronouncements exaggerates their economic significance. Dr Robert Gay then analyses why bonds yields are so low (no, it's not as simple as ZIRP and QE), concluding that interest rates and inflation will remain low for a long time yet, and that fears of equity bubbles are at least premature. Back on the issue of media obsessions, BCA Research's Marko Papic explains why headline-grabbing extremist group, Islamic State, is irrelevant from an investment perspective. Far more relevant, he argues, is the sudden surge in oil production by Libya - oil prices may be reaching a bottom. (BCA Research is offering a complimentary two-month trial of its macro research, including Marko's geopolitical strategy service, to PortfolioConstruction Forum members - see the end of his article for details). There's not much any of us can do about markets, but we can limit the impact of market volatility on portfolios and manage "sequence of returns risk". We've featured quite a few papers on how to do that in Fodder over the past few years - but this week, Michael Kitces shows that simple regular portfolio rebalancing can do as good a job or better of managing sequencing risk than other more complex approaches - and it's a lot simpler for clients to understand. Lastly, following on from Michael Furey's low beta piece last week, we feature Cliff Asness's Conference 2014 presentation

on the theoretical justification for the low beta premium. I'm well aware that sounds like a big yawn. It's anything but because Cliff is such a fantastic presenter - in fact, this was the second highest rated session of Conference!
All the best for some more great weekend learning - Graham

LATEST...

Celebrity central bankers
There are good reasons why central bankers receive so much media. But the bubble around their pronouncements grossly exaggerates their economic significance.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University
Opinion

Why are bond yields so low?
The answer seems obvious. But more complicated forces are at work that have reduced real interest rates far below historic norms and may keep them low for many years yet.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
Opinion

IS is irrelevant - Libya is relevant
The media continues to obsess about IS - but the far more investment-relevant development in the Middle East is the return of Libyan crude into a well-supplied market.
Marko Papic, BCA Research
Opinion

Managing sequencing risk - buckets v rebalancing
In managing sequencing risk, we may not be giving simple rebalancing nearly the credit it deserves to accomplish similar or better results than more complex approaches.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Research paper

Risk parity portfolios and the low beta premium
In recent years, the risk parity approach to asset allocation has been gaining popularity. Evidence supports the approach but confidence in it also needs a theoretical justification.
Cliff Asness, AQR Capital
Resources

RECENTLY...

The single-engine global economy
The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off. Unfortunately, only one of its four engines is functioning properly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
Opinion

Taking a gamble with negative interest rates
The taboo that savers must be compensated for handing money to a financial institution has been broken, with the ECB's negative rates finally being passed on to retail clients.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
Opinion

Deflation: Boom or bust?
It has been my contention for a while that capitalism is returning to its 19th century deflationary roots. Indeed, the evidence has become overwhelming.
Charles Gave, GaveKal
Opinion  

Low beta anomaly - mispricing or risk?
I don't dispute that low volatility stocks outperform highly volatile stocks (and this is common across many markets). But volatility does not explain all of an asset's risk.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
1 comment Opinion

Risk parity portfolios - fad or the future of portfolio construction?
Is risk parity's outperformance in the past decade sustainable or just a quirk of the unusual markets?
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
Resources

PLUS...

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