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G'day
I'm feeling the pressure in writing my Fodder introduction this week.
Our first two opinions are focused on Japan (don't tune out yet!)
because - and this is also the risk I'm taking - in my view, many
practitioners tend to tune out about Japan, unaware of the very material relevance of
its massive QE program to
portfolios. So here's my pitch! The authors alone should be enough to
entice you to read these two pieces: GaveKal's
Louis-Vincent Gave and well connected US-based
financial commentator, John Mauldin.
Louis explains the investment relevance of the seemingly odd timing of Abe calling
an election now.
John Mauldin explains why Japan's QE will last for many years, and just why
we should definitely care. To cut to the chase: "This is not Zimbabwe or
Argentina printing money - Japan is important to the global economy.
What they do affects everything... This is central banks at war."
On a related - and much brighter note - we also highlight
Linda Jacobson's top-10 rated Conference 2014 presentation on the
growing geopolitical risks in Asia (mostly China v Japan) and why
they're not necessarily bad for Australia and the region. And then,
Mohamed El-Erian explains why the recent US dollar rally is a good
first step in helping the global economy rebalance.
Finally, for many years, I've been arguing against the widespread use of
(in my view, misleading) point-to-point returns to report fund
performance. Russell Investment's Don Ezra does an excellent job of
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showing exactly why its the wrong approach - and he
offers his three favourite measures to evaluate active managers. They're
simple and powerful... and, at 70, Don can claim more experience
than most!
All the best for some more great weekend learning - Graham
P.S.
Mark your diary: Symposium NZ 19-20 May 2015 (Auckland).
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LATEST...
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Japan's election and the yen
By calling an election now, Abe is betting that a further big fall in
the yen - and a consequent further rise in the Nikkei - is no certainty.
He may well be right.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
| Opinion
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Bad yen falling
Japan is not going to stop QE next year or the year after or the year
after that. This is not Zimbabwe printing money. Japan is important - what they do affects everything.
John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics
| Opinion
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Conference
2014 Top 10
Geopolitical risks are growing in East Asia
An emboldened China has taken a tough approach to its periphery. But
this doesn't necessarily spell doom and gloom for Australia and the
region.
Linda Jakobson, University of Sydney/Lowy Institute
| Resources
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The return of the dollar
The US dollar rally could contribute to the "rebalancing" that has long
eluded the world economy. But that is far from guaranteed given the
related risks of financial instability.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz
| Opinion
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Insights for evaluating active management
Statistics rarely tell the story clearly. With trial and error, I found
that looking at three dimensions of performance assisted my
interpretation.
Don Ezra, Russell Investments
| White
paper
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RECENTLY...
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China A shares emerging from the bear?
Despite strong returns, it's still hard for investors to think
positively about China A shares. The key is to envisage
what the world will look like in 10 to 15 years.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
| Opinion
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Now that you can, should you buy Shanghai?
The world's biggest inaccessible stock market is finally open to
foreigners. Those with strong convictions about the rise of the Chinese
consumer may want to take a hard look.
Thomas Gatley, GaveKal
| Opinion
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The Yin and Yang of retirement income philosophies
This white paper serves up a retirement income planning "buffet" -
reviewing the two main opposing philosophies and the range of strategies
that span the divide.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Research
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Are low-volatility stocks overcrowded?
Ten years ago, hardly anyone talked about low-volatility investing. Now
there's growing concern it is becoming an overcrowded trade. There are
four arguments against this.
David Blitz & Pim van Vliet, Robeco
| White
Paper
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Conference
2014 Top 10
The power of R³
It is given that we all are wired to act foolishly sometimes, so how can
we be better "choice architects" and "decision reassurers" for ourselves
and our clients?
Dr David Lazenby, ScenarioNow Inc
| Resources
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Member
comments
Efficient and safe retirement drawdowns
So I guess simply using the annual (or other periodic) draw downs to also
rebalance should work, and efficiently?
Comment
Low beta anomaly - mispricing or risk?
I agree with the author of this article totally. Volatility is just an
indication of unknown risk or uncertainty...
Comment
Slick LICs
Do you remember when Platinum Capital (PMC) traded at a 20-25% premium
to NAV? Back then, people made similar arguments as to why it was
structural...
Comment
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