Forum Fodder

PortfolioConstruction Forum


Our regular Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and with our live professional development progams. A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.  Become a Member (with our compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning centre, (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white papers, opinion papers and special interest
   subscription services from local and international investment professionals and subject matter experts; and,
- CPD Campus - our online portfolio construction learning and accreditation resource.


 Friday 06 March 2015

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners


Picking up from where Woody left off last week, GaveKal's Louis Gave argues that oil prices were a bubble that imploded and won't be bouncing back any time soon. For a clear, logical explanation of why that really matters for portfolios, check out Jonathan Mirrlees-Black's paper "Cyclical and structural implications of the oil price fall".

How many times lately have you heard that the Aussie dollar has further to fall vs the US dollar? It's the consensus view - so it's timely to revisit this paper on the optimal hedge ratio for international equities. (The icing on the cake is you can earn 0.50 CE points as well as validating your knowledge.)

Next, take 20 minutes to "attend" the presentation that took out the "Delegates Pick Award" at the recent Markets Summit - Bruce Campbell arguing that the breakup of the eurozone is inevitable. Then, to complete the picture, read Greg Bright's pithy summary of the takeouts from Markets Summit 2015.

Lastly, Bob Baur summarises the economic and investment implications of "the great unwinding" - the

reversal of some very long-term secular trends.

All the best for some great weekend learning! - Graham
P.S. Applications for the BlackRock/PortfolioConstruction Forum CIMA Scholarship for research analysts and consultants close 30 March. For more info, click here.


The oil bubble implosion
Since the 1980s, oil prices have fallen 50% or more over six months just twice - including last year. Was oil a bubble which has now imploded? Or will it bounce back?
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal

Cyclical and structural implications of the oil price fall
The collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 is very large in a historical context. This paper explores the implications for portfolio construction.
Dr Jonathan Mirrlees-Black
White Paper

Currency management - to hedge or not to hedge?
Currency risk is a significant issue for Australian investors. This paper summarises the research on optimal hedge ratios for international equities exposures.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| 0.50 CE | 

Break-up of the eurozone is inevitable
A currency union absent of full political union is inherently unstable. After the first country exits the eurozone, markets will attack the next most vulnerable.
Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International
* Winner of the Delegate's Pick Award at Markets Summit 2015

The world is a confusing place
With 20 speakers at Markets Summit 2015, there were inevitably conflicting views. This year, the bears outnumbered the bulls and the mood was noticeably downbeat.
Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News

The great unwinding
The world economy today is defined by the unwinding, the reversal of several very long-term economic trends - and they have economic and investment implications.
Robert Baur, Principal Global Advisors

Member comments
Academy Summer Seminar - Key takeout

I need to do more work on emerging markets. At the height of the BRICs days, every second word appeared to be "decoupling", yet in Lazard's commentary it states it believes emerging market equities "require steady global growth free of exogenous shocks in order to significantly outperform developed market equities". Are there real diversification benefits from emerging markets or is this simply a high beta play?
Sally Campbell, JBWere
More about Academy


Economic signals are everywhere. By being alert, anyone can start to navigate through the turbulence of the world economy instead of being surprised by it.
Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group

Just how important is asset allocation?
In this seminal paper, Ibbotson confirms that after the decision to actually invest is made, asset allocation and manager selection are equally important.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| 0.50 CE | 

4 reasons for collapsing oil prices (& future prospects)
Trader Anuraag Shah, who made a fortune betting on a declining oil price, summarised global astonishment at the collapse in oil prices - "It's bloody nuts!". Actually, no it isn't.
Dr Woody Brock, SED
White Paper

The risk of a US recession in 2016
The risk of a US recession in 2016 is the most important issue for investors. There are cyclical, structural and secular forces at work in this recession risk call.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics

Ditch the good, buy the bad and the ugly
Despite forecasters projecting superior US economic growth to continue, we're selling our beloved US quality stocks in favor of the problem children of the investing world.
Ben Inker, GMO

Member comments
Academy Summer Seminar - Key takeout

Lower oil prices seem to be with us for some time, unless the instability in the Middle East widens. The Saudis seem to be intent on adding supply to slow the progress of the US energy industry. We have started to see the effect with some companies now stalling. Lower oil prices are a positive for economic growth and company earnings. They also further cement the lack of inflation across the globe, allowing monetary policy to remain loose - positive for equities.
Paul Hocking, Hillross Financial Services
More about Academy


Keep up to date - follow us @PortfolioForum
There's no need to wait until our weekly Forum Fodder email to know what's new with PortfolioConstruction Forum. Just follow us on Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles on and registration opens for our live programs.




Join The Debate

Use the Comments and Questions area below to share your comments/questions.
Follow us on Twitter to hear as soon as we release new articles on