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G'day
Picking up from where Woody left off last
week, GaveKal's Louis Gave argues that
oil prices were a bubble that imploded and
won't be bouncing back any time soon.
For a clear, logical explanation of why that
really matters for portfolios, check out
Jonathan Mirrlees-Black's paper "Cyclical
and structural implications of the oil price
fall".
How many times lately have you heard that
the Aussie dollar has further to fall vs the
US dollar? It's the consensus view - so it's
timely to revisit this paper on
the optimal hedge ratio for international
equities. (The icing on the cake is you
can earn 0.50 CE points as well as
validating your knowledge.)
Next, take 20 minutes to "attend" the
presentation that took out the "Delegates
Pick Award" at the recent Markets Summit -
Bruce Campbell arguing that the breakup of
the eurozone is inevitable. Then, to
complete the picture, read
Greg Bright's pithy summary of the takeouts
from Markets Summit 2015.
Lastly, Bob Baur summarises
the economic and investment implications of
"the great unwinding" - the
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reversal of some very long-term secular
trends.
All the best for some great weekend
learning! - Graham
P.S. Applications for the BlackRock/PortfolioConstruction
Forum CIMA Scholarship for research analysts
and consultants close 30 March. For more
info, click
here. |
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LATEST... |
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The oil bubble implosion
Since the 1980s, oil prices have fallen 50%
or more over six months just twice -
including last year. Was oil a bubble which
has now imploded? Or will it bounce back?
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
| Opinion |
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Cyclical and structural implications of the
oil price fall
The collapse in oil prices in the second
half of 2014 is very large in a historical
context. This paper explores the
implications for portfolio construction.
Dr Jonathan Mirrlees-Black
| White
Paper |
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Currency management - to hedge or not to
hedge?
Currency risk is a significant issue for
Australian investors. This paper summarises
the research on optimal hedge ratios for
international equities exposures.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
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0.50 CE | Research |
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Break-up of the eurozone is inevitable
A currency union absent of full political
union is inherently unstable. After the
first country exits the eurozone, markets
will attack the next most vulnerable.
Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International
| Resources
* Winner of the Delegate's Pick Award at
Markets Summit 2015 |
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The world is a confusing place
With 20 speakers at Markets Summit 2015,
there were inevitably conflicting views.
This year, the bears outnumbered the bulls
and the mood was noticeably downbeat.
Greg Bright, Investor Strategy News
| Opinion |
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The great unwinding
The world economy today is defined by the
unwinding, the reversal of several very
long-term economic trends - and they have
economic and investment implications.
Robert Baur, Principal Global Advisors
| Opinion |
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Member comments
Academy Summer Seminar
- Key takeout
I need to do more work on emerging markets.
At the height of the BRICs days, every
second word appeared to be "decoupling", yet
in Lazard's commentary it states it believes
emerging market equities "require steady
global growth free of exogenous shocks in
order to significantly outperform developed
market equities". Are there real
diversification benefits from emerging
markets or is this simply a high beta play?
Sally Campbell, JBWere
| More
about Academy |
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RECENTLY... |
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Signals
Economic signals are everywhere. By being
alert, anyone can start to navigate through
the turbulence of the world economy instead
of being surprised by it.
Hon. Dr Pippa Malmgren, DRPM Group
| Resources |
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Just how important is asset allocation?
In this seminal paper, Ibbotson confirms
that after the decision to actually invest
is made, asset allocation and manager
selection are equally important.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
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0.50 CE | Research |
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4 reasons for collapsing oil prices (&
future prospects)
Trader Anuraag Shah, who made a fortune
betting on a declining oil price, summarised
global astonishment at the collapse in oil
prices - "It's bloody nuts!". Actually, no
it isn't.
Dr Woody Brock, SED
| White
Paper |
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The risk of a US recession in 2016
The risk of a US recession in 2016 is the
most important issue for investors. There
are cyclical, structural and secular forces
at work in this recession risk call.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| Opinion |
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Ditch the good, buy the bad and the ugly
Despite forecasters projecting superior US
economic growth to continue, we're selling
our beloved US quality stocks in favor of
the problem children of the investing world.
Ben Inker, GMO
| Opinion |
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Member comments
Academy Summer Seminar
- Key takeout
Lower oil prices seem to be with us for some
time, unless the instability in the Middle
East widens. The Saudis seem to be intent on
adding supply to slow the progress of the US
energy industry. We have started to see the
effect with some companies now stalling.
Lower oil prices are a positive for economic
growth and company earnings. They also
further cement the lack of inflation across
the globe, allowing monetary policy to
remain loose - positive for equities.
Paul Hocking, Hillross Financial Services
| More
about Academy |
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PLUS... |
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