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G'day
Fodder's something of a two
horse race this week. First up, we have Greece. Read Oliver Hartwich's
entertaining and sobering insight on (in his words)
whether the new Greek government is playing a madman strategy in a game
of chicken, or whether Tsipras & Co are just barking mad.
(It's hard not to conclude the later.)
Then check out Charles Dallara's presentation from the recent Markets
Summit on
whether Greece will be the Eurozone's nemesis. Charles led the team
that negotiated Greece's bailout in 2011, no one better understands its
latest woes and the impact on the Eurozone.
Louis Gave lightens the mood with his pithy piece on the
three ways to make money in financial markets generally, and what
investors should buy now, and where.
Angela Ashton adds to our foundation curriculum - a core set of 20 or so
research papers we believe every practitioner should read and
understand. This latest is on
financial ratio analysis - don't tune out - and it's relevant
whether you recommend individual stocks, or use equity funds. (Complete
the CE quiz to earn 1.25 CE points.)
Back to our two horse race - Fed tightening is the other runner. Bob
Gay (who worked at the Fed under arguably it's best chairman, Volker)
looks at
what "normal" means as the Fed begins to normalise rates. And
finally, JP Morgan Asset Management's Dr David Kelly and team complement
Bob's piece perfectly with an
indepth analysis of the investment implications of the Fed's long
journey |
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back to
more normal monetary policy. (Complete the CE quiz to earn another 1.25
CPD points.)
All the best for some great
weekend learning! - Graham
P.S. Fodder's taking a break over Easter and will return on 17
April. Meanwhile, we'll let you know by Twitter as usual as we publish
papers (follow us
@PortfolioForum). |
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LATEST... |
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Greece's madmen at work
Hardly a day passes that a Greek government official does not add a
needless provocation to the bailout debate. Is this just madness? Or is
there method in it?
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
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Opinion
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Greece - a case study for increasing Eurozone strain
2015 will be a year of huge uncertainty about the future of the Euro.
These uncertainties are likely to pose a fundamental challenge to
investing in the Eurozone.
Charles Dallara, Partners Group
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Resources
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Rated in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2015
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Three regions, three strategies
Fundamentally, there are three ways to make money in financial markets.
A well structured and well-diversified portfolio should encompass all
three, across geographies.
Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal
| Opinion
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Financial ratio analysis
Even if it is never your intention to recommend individual stocks,
understanding financial analysis - and ratios in particular - will enhance your ability to analyse equity funds.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| 1.25 CE
| Research
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The end of an era
Now the Fed has opened the door to normalising interest, what
constitutes "normal"? Take care in stretching for yield now the Fed is
no longer making promises.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
| Opinion
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The investment implications of Fed tightening
After more than six years of near zero interest rates, the Fed appears
set to embark upon the long journey back to more normal monetary policy,
raising a host of questions about the investment implications.
Dr David Kelly et al, JP Morgan Asset Management
| 1.25 CE
| White
Paper
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Member
comments
Confused
Interesting
article... just one query. I thought markets were the consensus view???
Michael Furey
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Markets more reliable than betting markets
At the races
favourites win about 1/3rd of the time, however odds on favourites win
about 59% of the time...
Chris Farley
| Comment
Markets and consensus
My take is that
markets set the clearing price based on the net views of the
participants. These views may or may not form a strong consensus.
Tim Farrelly
| Comment
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RECENTLY... |
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9 times out of 10 the consensus will be wrong?
When faced with a huge majority of experts expecting international
equities to outperform Australian equities, I blurted this out. I was
wrong, and on a few counts.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
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comments
| Opinion
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The real change and opportunity in Japan
A behavioural shift by Japan's people from a 20-year deflationary
mindset to an inflationary one represents a major opportunity set for
investors for many years to come.
Tim Griffen, Lazard Asset Management
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Opinion
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Beware the euro consensus
The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily and the euro
seems to be plunging to below parity. But there are at least four
factors pressuring it the other way.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
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Opinion
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The messy politics of economic divergence
The world is increasingly characterised by divergence – in economic
performance, monetary policy, and financial markets.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz
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Opinion
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Demographic changes, financial markets, and the economy
This paper by Rob Arnott and Denis Chaves looks the effects of different
age cohorts on GDP and asset class returns.
Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management
| 1.75 CPD
| Research
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Bond markets lock up and lock out returns
Bond markets were once the world’s most liquid. Today, trading even $5
million in bonds can be difficult. Funds may limit withdrawals and hold larger cash balances.
Scott Weiner, Payden & Rygel
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comment
| Resources
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Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2015
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Member
comments
The stock-bond disconnect
This article raises
the question, but doesn't tackle the question of what will happen when
interest rates are eventually forced to rise to forestall inflation...
Chris Farley
| Comment
Wages after work
The wages v profits
argument here falls flat on the basis of changing demographics. The
proportion of former workers, ie retirees that no longer earn a wage and
are supported by returns on (their) financial capital, has been growing
and will continue to grow...
Aaron Minney
| Comment
A disconnect here
With respect to the
above comments, I do not think the question posed by the learned
professor was either of these issues. The issue posed in the first
sentence is framed in why do we have booming equity markets and
extremely low interest rates? I agree that it is more than deficient
demand and financial repression...
Craig Offenhauser
| Comment
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PLUS...
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