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Our regular
Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and
with our live professional development progams.
A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.
Become a Member (with our
compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning
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- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying
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papers, opinion papers and special interest
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accreditation resource.
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G'day
Donald Rumsfeld made the phrase famous - and in this week's Fodder,
Prof Jack Gray explains the implications of "unknown unknowns" on our
investing behaviour. The upshot? It's best to
confess our ignorance to clients because they know we can't know
everything.
Something most people appear to "know" with near certainty is that low
interest rates are here to stay. On this, we offer three opinions
from three diverse commentators. First, Tim Farrelly outlines why he
thinks we can expect
much lower interest rates for much longer than most would have thought
even as recently as the end of 2014. Then, Dr Robert Gay - prior
senior economist at the Fed during Volker's reign (who agrees it's a
pretty sure thing that short-term rates will stay low for a long time) -
warns that
what happens to bond yields is far less certain as it will depend inflation and inflation expectations. Lastly,
we turn to the top 10-rated Markets Summit 2015 presentation from PIMCO's
Rob Mead, on
why lower neutral monetary policy rates will anchor secular
valuations of all asset classes. "Attend" Rob's
presentation online, sit the related quiz, and earn 0.50 CE points.
Next, GaveKal's Charles Gave borrows another
famous phrase, "this time, it really is different". He's not referring to
"central bankers' scurrilous efforts at monetary debasement" as he puts
it, but rather to "something genuinely new to the modern experience... collapsing equity volatility".
Finally, JP Morgan Asset Management's Tai Hui
explains the implications of lower-for-longer and |
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eventual policy normalisation by the Fed on the outlook
for emerging market equities. Read Tai's paper and sit the Quiz to earn
1.00 CE point.
All the best for some great
learning! - Graham
P.S. Join us for
Symposium NZ 2015 (19/20 May). A mix of the formats |
Lest we forget
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of our Markets
Summit, Conference and Academy programs, it's equally relevant to
Australian Members. |
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LATEST... |
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Risk, uncertainty and ignorance
Investors often face unknown and even unknowable states
of the world. How should we make investment decisions
under ignorance?
Jack Gray, UTS
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Opinion
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Much lower interest rates for much longer
Low GDP growth, very low real rates, higher PEs and
valuation multiples - it's a new world. We all need to
get used to it. In particular, we should review client
spending plans.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
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Opinion
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Playing with matches
Fixed income markets seem to have gotten the correct
message, albeit perhaps for the wrong reasons –
short-term interest rates will stay low for a long time.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
| Opinion
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A post-volatility world
These are words that I utter with the utmost caution -
this time, it really is different. Consider the
curious case of collapsing equity volatility.
Charles Gave, GaveKal
| Opinion |
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EM: Cyclically challenged, structurally adjusting,
secularly promising
EM equities and fixed income enjoyed a boom in the
2000s. Now after several years of relative
underperformance, EMs appear to be on the cusp of
stronger growth.
Tai Hui, JP Morgan Asset Management
| 1.00 CE
| White
Paper
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Australia’s New Neutral: Low interest rates for even
longer
Lower 'neutral' monetary policy rates across the
developed world will continue to serve as an important
anchor for the secular valuation of all asset classes.
Robert Mead, PIMCO
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0.50 CE
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Resources
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Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2015
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Member
comments
Academy key takeout - Unknown unknowns
With regard to unknown unknowns (UUs), the payoffs are
hugely asymetric. Max downside 100%, unlimited upside.
Thus, notwithstanding the unknowns, take a large number
of small bets, and hope that some turn into very big
bets.
John Cameron, Black Swan Event Financial Planning
| Comment
Academy key takeout - uncertainty
Mistakenly we make decisions in the face of uncertainty
based on limited experience rather than make decisions
on information that we are uncomfortable with.
Brendan Irwin, Mercer Financial Advice
| Comment
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RECENTLY... |
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Gold may regain its shine
While it has offered a very bumpy and challenging ride in recent years,
I suspect those prepared to buy and hold some gold exposure today will
be well rewarded looking back a few years from now.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management
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Opinion
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Why Germany should leave the eurozone
Not only would a German exit from the eurozone give Germany the currency
it deserves, but it would also leave the rest of the eurozone with the
carcass of a currency well suited for its needs.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
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Opinion
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How indexation killed growth
Indexing, as I have written before, is a form of socialism, since
capital is allocated not as it should be. It is hard to think of a more
stupid way to allocate this scarce resource.
Charles Gave, GaveKal
| Opinion
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The case for active management
Even the most skillful active managers will sometimes underperform. And,
in some market environments, most active managers can be expected to
underperform.
Bill Priest et al, Epoch Investment Partners
| 1.00
CPD
| White
Paper |
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Assessing manager risk & risk-adjusted performance
Even if it is never your intention to recommend individual stocks,
understanding financial analysis - and ratios in particular - will
enhance your ability to analyse equity funds.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| 0.75
CPD
| Research
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India's transformation: a compelling fixed income opportunity
As Indian capital markets develop, the macro picture improves, inflation
is brought under control, and the economy continues to grow, India's
credit and rates markets present a compelling opportunity for global
fixed income investors.
Neeraj Seth, BlackRock
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0.5 CE
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Resources
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Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2015
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Member
comments
Academy Autumn Seminar - Key takeout
Peoples attitude to
planning and seeking advice can be significantly impacted by the way
they see their past...
James Brown, Dixon Advisory & Superannuation Services
| Comment
Academy Autumn Seminar - Key takeout
China - the CCP has
the utmost determination to stay in power and they plan well into the
future. Crack down on corruption solves 2 issues...
Charlie Creswick, Ottomin Investment Group
| Comment
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PLUS...
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