Forum Fodder

PortfolioConstruction Forum


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 Monday 18 May 2015

The independent professional development service for investment portfolio construction practitioners


Rather than any particular theme which is often the case, this week's Fodder has something for everyone.

But before I get into that - from time to time, we alert Members to seminars hosted by our regular contributors. In this vein, GaveKal is hosting a seminar in Sydney next Tuesday 2 June from 3.30pm to 5.30pm - and PortfolioConstruction Forum Members are welcome. The seminar features GaveKal founder, Anatole Kaletsky, whose insightful thought pieces you'll have seen in Fodder over the past few years, along with those of Charles Gave, and Louis- Vincent Gave. We're delighted to have the rights to publish pieces from GaveKal Research, and to now support this seminar. I commend it to you. To find out more and to register, go to GaveKal's site

Back to Fodder... we kick off with Nouriel Roubini explaining why with central banks all engaged in easing monetary policy, it was only a matter of time before the US entered the currency wars.  

On a related note, Dom McCormick warns of the multi-decade consequences of global easy monetary policy (around 30 central banks around the world have eased already in 2015), arguing the ultimate debt unwind, whenever it comes, is likely to be epic.

Moving from investing to investors (all of us, not just clients), Dr Joanne Earl presents recent research by her and her UNSW colleagues on the impact of a person's Time Perspective on whether they plan for retirement or not, and why understanding our own Time Perspectives and those of our clients is vital.

Back on investing, we highlight the paper behind Scott Weiner's top rating Markets Summit presentation, on the new insidious liquidity risk in corporate bond markets and how to protect portfolios against it.

And finally, on a happier note, we feature John Hock's high conviction presentation on why our thinking needs to change from "ex-Japan" as has

been the case for the last 20 years, to "Yes, Japan".

All the best for some great learning! - Graham

P.S. As we're hosting our Symposium NZ 2015 program this week, Fodder is skipping a week and will return Friday 29 May.


The US dollar joins the currency wars
Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 central banks have eased monetary policy. Upward pressure on the US dollar has been sharp. America's entry into the fray was only a matter of time.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics

Divergences, debt and economics
In a world dependent on robust economic growth to solve or postpone debt problems the over-reliance on an apparently slowing US economy is of major concern.
Dominic McCormick, Select Asset Management

A matter of time
Have you ever wondered about why some people plan for retirement and other people don’t? Whether people focus on the past, the present or the future - their Time Perspective - influences their retirement planning behaviour.
Dr Joanne Earl, UNSW
| 1.00 CE

Secondary market for corporate bond markets liquidity in 2014
The US secondary corporate bond market is in a time of significant upheaval. Changes to regulations has caused a new, insidious liquidity risk.
Scott Weiner, Payden & Rygel
| 2.00 CE
White Paper

Time to think "yes" Japan, not "ex" Japan
Few opportunities are available today where discounts to intrinsic value outweigh downside risks. Japanese corporations are increasingly embracing ROE and shareholder value.
John Hock, Altrinsic Global Advisors
| 0.50 CE |

Member comments
Academy Autumn Seminar - Key takeout

Robert Shiller says the human brain is programmed for storytelling. Storytelling causes asset bubbles!
Ian Donaldson, IR Donaldson Comment

Academy Autumn Seminar -  Key takeout
China is often portrayed in an almost adversarial manner, when objectively their behaviour doesn't really bear this out. The rise of China will continue, but it won't be without continued challenges and challengers, and its progress certainly won't be a straight line. We should all hope that Xi's 'long game' doesn't become a 'long rope' as Australia is very dependent on his plans for long term success.
Nathan Baker, KR Securities


A sense of an ending
I have a sense of an ending, a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang. Only the timing is in doubt. Because of this sense, I have increasingly a great unrest. You should too.
Bill Gross, Janus Capital Group

The role of investment philosophy in evaluating managers
Managers have a better chance of adding alpha if they have a clear philosophy of how they generate it, according to research on the importance of an investment philosophy.
Angela Ashton, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| 1.50 CE

Undiscovered Fund: Active multi-asset/alternatives strategy
An actively managed, multi-asset/alternatives strategy that is positioned to generate absolute returns, with less than half the volatility of global equities, regardless of market conditions.
Zenith Investment Partners

Not another Emerging Market crisis
After a run of rapid improvement in living standards last decade, emerging markets will face a more challenging outlook - not a crisis - over the next few years.
J Lawson & N Jaquier, Standard Life Investments
| 2.00 CE
White Paper

Limbo lower - real rates are at a structurally lower level
Navigating the lower limbo stick will require more unconstrained investing, greater consideration of the chosen benchmark, and a greater focus on downside risk management.
Tracey McNaughton, UBS Global Asset Management
| 0.50 CE |

Member comments
Academy Autumn Seminar - Key takeout

China's CCP has the utmost determination to stay in power and they plan well into the future. Cracking down on corruption solves two issues - improving businesses practices and a chance to clean house of one's rivals.
Charlie Creswick, Ottomin Investment Group Comment

Academy Autumn Seminar -  Key takeout
Understanding an individual's time perspective can help us understand what motivates them and why they have certain biases. Among other things, it is a useful rapport building tool.
Vijay Srinivasan, Colonial First State


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