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 Friday 20 November 2015

Terrorism and rate rises
It's impossible not to be horrified by the attacks in Paris last week - but is it relevant to investing? Yes, warns PortfolioConstruction Forum faculty member and EU bear, Oliver Hartwich, who sees it as another nail in the coffin for the EU. But our regular geopolitical/investment analyst, BCA's Marko Papic, disagrees. Perhaps a far greater threat to portfolios looms with the imminent (inevitable, according to most) Fed rate rise in December - and we offer you two opposing views on that issue as well. As usual, it's up to you to consider the perspectives and decide your view.
All the best for another great weekend's learning - Graham
P.S. Niall Ferguson's analysis of the Paris attacks makes for interesting reading


A fatal threat to the European project
Last weekend's Paris terror attacks have severe political, strategic and economic implications. After only one week, the Union moved away from its ideal of free movement of people, and fiscal rules. Terrorism is making a bad situation worse.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative

Tailwinds of terror
If Paris is not an anomaly, and the frequency or magnitude of terrorist attacks against soft targets in G7 cities increases, what will be the geopolitical, economic and investment consequences?
Marko Papic, BCA Research Opinion

Wicksell and capital misallocation
I am not at all sure that an eventual interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve should be dismissed as an event with little impact in the real world.
Charles Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Debt - Global
Rising rates - investors can benefit
Many investors are facing a dilemma with the perceived risk embedded in debt markets as Fed lift-off looms. However, reality beckons - rates will rise and investors can benefit.
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO
| 0.75 CE | Resources

Global monetary policy - the view from Down Under
In October, I joined Dr Woody Brock and PIMCO's Fed watcher, Tony Crescenzi, and 18 senior practitioners for a workshop organised by PortfolioConstruction Forum on where global monetary policy was headed. Three key views emerged.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers

Member comments
What can change this prognosis?
A simple question to Anatole - are US leading indicators suggesting a US recession? And, if so, does this change your suggestion that higher rates will not kill equities?
Craig Offenhauser
, Charter Pacific Securities Comment


What's going on in your brain?
It's 18 months ago, at Conference 2014, that we introduced Finology to 550 Members via a booked-out Masterclass and our main Conference 2014 program.  Finology explores the relationship between human beings and money in our society. It is the emerging (and converging) research field covering the study of minds, customs and behaviours with respect to money. It incorporates behaviour finance and much, much more. Since then, our aim has been to include Finology perspectives in Fodder whenever possible. This week's "What's going on in your brain" is a great piece (and one you may wish to share with clients to help them understand themselves better). For more on Finology, refer to our growing Finology library and join us for Finology Summit (17 Feb).

At the crossroads… Decision making under uncertainty - sensible or senseless?
A clear philosophy is the best basis for making decisions
Having a clear investment philosophy based on our own belief set - a living document that we evolve and sharpen over time - is the best tool to making investment decisions.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
0.50 CE Resources

Preparing for Fed lift-off
The Federal Reserve is near-certain to start its tightening cycle on 16 December. Apart from praising Yellen for consistency and foresight (instead of castigating her for confusion and indecisiveness), how should investors react?
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal 1 comment Opinion

Why inflation is lower than you think
Financial pundits routinely claim that US inflation is much higher than the reported statistics. Viewed over the longer term, however, US inflation is far lower than reflected in the published data, according to economist, Dr Woody Brock.
Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives

It's the end of the EU as we knew it
Since Angela Merkel single handedly opened Germany's borders to refugees, asylum seekers, migrants and any other nomads, the continent has been plunged into chaos. It threatens to wreck the EU - or, at least turn it into an entirely different organisation.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
| Opinion

What's going on in your brain
We examine four situations where individuals make poor choices and review the research to show where the brain makes those decisions. In each case, we present some ideas about how to overcome the potentially suboptimal choice when it comes to investing.
Michael Mauboussin & Dan Callahan, Credit Suisse
| Research

Member comments
SPIVA comparisons
... Consider the unpublished equivalent statistic that a total of 100%* of index managers underperform after fees. Clearly not doing as good a job as the active managers. 
Aaron Minney, Challenger Comment

Beyond borders
Very interesting presentation - it makes you think about our traditional asset allocation approach and the tools we use for this.
Mark Carroll, Morvest Financial Planning Comment

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