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 Friday 27 November 2015

Independent continuing education for investment portfolio construction practitioners

Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Does it feel like we've been here before?  It's expected (again) that the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting, the situation in the Middle East is (again) alarmingly tense, currency wars are (again) rife, bond market liquidity is (still) tight, many believe some asset markets are (again) in bubble territory, yet for commodities, it's like the 21st century never happened. The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same! But does that mean that going forward, markets and asset classes will behave as in the past? Is it different this time? Or is it deja-vu (all over again)?
And that's the theme for Markets Summit 2016! We'll see you there. 
All the best for another great weekend's learning - Graham
. If you haven't already, please block out your diary for Markets Summit (16 Feb) and/or Finology Summit (17 Feb).


Illiquid assets – portfolio "must have"? Or "mirage"?
The case for and against illiquid assets is hotly debated. Indeed, other than fees, the battle between industry funds and retail super funds has been heavily fought around significantly differing levels of exposures to the main illiquid asset classes.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners

Goal risk tolerance matters too
Risk tolerance is a key constraint in designing a portfolio, but it should also be considered a key constraint in establishing a client's goals for investing in the first place.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
| 0.25 CE | White Paper

Risk crossroad: Weather markets with multiple risk strategies
What is truly more important to investors - losing less or making more? While 36% of investors say they are ‘reviewing their need for downside protection’, only 8% are currently implementing it. Yet there are many strategies available to manage risk in portfolios.
Jon Shead, State Street Global Advisers
| 0.75 CE | Resources

QMTV: A risk awareness framework
QMTV, which stands for quality, momentum, transition and value, is a framework that can help investors manage the buy, hold and sell decision process through the various cycles as well as providing a crossroad signal.
Fidelity Worldwide Investment
1.25 CPD White Paper

The case for private over public equity
I have 80% of my personal assets in private equity - and I plan to increase that to roughly 100%. I don’t have many other good ideas as to what to do in this environment.
Dr Marcel Erni, Partners Group


Terrorism and rate rises
It's impossible not to be horrified by the attacks in Paris last week - but is it relevant to investing? Yes, warns PortfolioConstruction Forum faculty member and EU bear, Oliver Hartwich, who sees it as another nail in the coffin for the EU. But our regular geopolitical/investment analyst, BCA's Marko Papic, disagrees. Perhaps a far greater threat to portfolios looms with the imminent (inevitable, according to most) Fed rate rise in December - and we offer you two opposing views on that issue as well. As usual, it's up to you to consider the perspectives and decide your view.
P.S. Niall Ferguson's analysis of the Paris attacks makes for interesting reading

A fatal threat to the European project
Last weekend's Paris terror attacks have severe political, strategic and economic implications. After only one week, the Union moved away from its ideal of free movement of people, and fiscal rules. Terrorism is making a bad situation worse.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative

Tailwinds of terror
If Paris is not an anomaly, and the frequency or magnitude of terrorist attacks against soft targets in G7 cities increases, what will be the geopolitical, economic and investment consequences?
Marko Papic, BCA Research Opinion

Wicksell and capital misallocation
I am not at all sure that an eventual interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve should be dismissed as an event with little impact in the real world.
Charles Gave, GaveKal Opinion

Debt - Global
Rising rates - investors can benefit
Many investors are facing a dilemma with the perceived risk embedded in debt markets as Fed lift-off looms. However, reality beckons - rates will rise and investors can benefit.
Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO
| 0.75 CE | Resources

Global monetary policy - the view from Down Under
In October, I joined Dr Woody Brock and PIMCO's Fed watcher, Tony Crescenzi, and 18 senior practitioners for a workshop organised by PortfolioConstruction Forum on where global monetary policy was headed. Three key views emerged.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers

Member comments
What can change this prognosis?
A simple question to Anatole - are US leading indicators suggesting a US recession? And, if so, does this change your suggestion that higher rates will not kill equities?
Craig Offenhauser
, Charter Pacific Securities Comment

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