Forum Fodder

PortfolioConstruction Forum


Our regular Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and with our live professional development progams. A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.  Become a Member (with our compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning centre, (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white papers, opinion papers and special interest
   subscription services from local and international investment professionals and subject matter experts; and,
- CPD Campus - our online portfolio construction learning and accreditation resource.


 Friday 26 February 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners

It IS really different this time
Chris Watling kicks off this week with a very short blog offering his key takeout from last week's Markets Summit 2016 - and he names his three favourite presentations of the day. We've linked those to their microsites in the online Resources Kit, so you can "attend" the sessions and see why Chris recommends them so highly. Then, Michael Furey highlights an interesting trend in Australian equities; JP has let us publish the blog he wrote to his clients after attending Markets Summit 2016; Anatole Kaletsky puts up a very convincing argument as to why Brexit is just not going to happen; and, Jacob Mitchell explains how portfolios can benefit from selling/shorting the US high yield debt bubble.
the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. To be advised as Markets Summit resources are loaded, connect with me on LinkedIn.


Markets Summit 2016 - my key takeout
It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics

Some simple Australian market analysis
Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory White Paper

Why this is not deja-vu 2011
Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I'm sorry, I don't.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report |

Why Brexit won't happen
Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal Opinion

Sell/short beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble now
The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase. It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries - issuers that have applied the funds to fast track corporate ambitions.
Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners
1.00 CE White Paper

Member comments
The word 'complexity' is abused in our industry. It is mostly used to describe difficult choices with many variables. The models used to solve the problems are always the same outdated linear models no matter how many variables there are...

Michael Caldis, ANZ Private Bank Comment


"Attend" Markets Summit & Finology Summit online
This week, over 650 delegates gathered for PortfolioConstruction Forum Markets Summit 2016 and Finology Summit 2016.  While the 'in person" learning is over, the online learning is just beginning. From Monday, we'll be loading material each day to the online Resources Kits for both programs (a page per session featuring the presentations (video/audio with sync'd slides) and papers), so you can "attend" both programs online and earn CE hours. The Resources Kit will offer two dozen high conviction ideas around the outlook for markets and implications for portfolios, with particular emphasis on what really IS different this time (and what is not). And the Finology Summit Resources Kit will feature four key ways to further improve the way you relate with individual investors (and/or help your colleagues who must do so). Don't wait until Monday though - this week's Fodder features some of the papers from both programs.

Countries don't matter?
For a number of years, many fund managers have maintained that country and regional analysis are no basis for making asset allocation decisions. It's nuts and you can clearly see it's nuts.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's Opinion

Judging bear market lows
There's a high likelihood that global equities are already in a Bear Market. If so, assessing the likely end of the Bear Market becomes critical. Most importantly is the need to forecast the end of the recession.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
White Paper

Investing in demographics - an update
Three demographic megatrends support a number of structural growth themes that allow identifiable companies to benefit from strong and compounding cash returns over investible timescales.
Fidelity International 1.00 CE
White Paper

Stress testing a China hard landing
As global economic uncertainty persists in the markets, a coherent and structured approach to assess macroeconomic and market scenarios and their impact on investors’ portfolios becomes critical.
MSCI White Paper

Complexity and sophistication
Investors must make choices in an increasingly complex environment - and that complexity has substantial and varied effects on the decision to opt out of a portfolio choice.
Leandro Carvalho & Dan Silverman, Capital Preferences
| 1 comment | Opinion

Member comments
Don't mention the war
Ultimately this is all rather sad, and demonstrative that a Union which is underpinned by ongoing ulterior motives between member states can be nothing more than dysfunctional.

John Mihail, StatePlus Comment

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