Forum Fodder NZ

PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

Our regular Forum Fodder email alerts Members to what's new on this site and with our live professional development progams. A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.  Become a Member (with our compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white papers, opinion papers and special interest
   subscription services from local and international investment professionals and subject matter experts; and,
- CPD Campus - our online portfolio construction learning and accreditation resource.


 


Friday 04 March 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners

The value of an investment philosophy
Dom McCormick leads Fodder this week, questioning the value of all the investment outlook newsletters and presentations that litter the start of any calendar year. In his own way, he's advocating what PortfolioConstruction Forum has been preaching for many years - the absolute necessity of a robust investment philosophy to make sense of the deluge of information and ideas available. He also makes a good point about long-term vs short-term investing (in line with our "the long and short of it" theme for this year's Conference in August). Read Dom's blog - and then with it in mind, dive into the 3 highest-rated presentations from Markets Summit 2016, featuring Chris Watling, Hamish Douglass and Ron Temple arguing their best high conviction ideas (all three arguing a longer-term perspective, Dom will be pleased to note!).
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham

LATEST...

Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners Opinion

Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Does it feel like we've been here before? The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean that, going forward, markets and asset classes will behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Resources

The chickens are coming home to roost
For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money' policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money' recovery. With the Fed now two years into tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost. The equity bear market is underway.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics Resources
 * Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

The distorted reality is unwinding
The Fed has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu - there continues to be a great disagreement about the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than most expect and QT will impact on financial asset volatility.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group |
Resources
* Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Get ready for a record-length US recovery
This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go before it fades. While the easy money of the multi-year equity market rally may be behind us, equity markets continue to be attractive.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management Resources
 * Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Brexit
Anatole may well be correct about the result of the UK Referendum on June 23rd. At this stage, in spite of the finely balanced polls, I agree that the Remain side has the advantage of “incumbency” with now a whole generation of UK citizens now having no direct experience of a non-EU world...

Garry Harradence
, Primeplan Securities Comment

RECENTLY...

It IS really different this time
Chris Watling kicks off this week with a very short blog offering his key takeout from last week's Markets Summit 2016 - and he names his three favourite presentations of the day. We've linked those to their microsites in the online Resources Kit, so you can "attend" the sessions and see why Chris recommends them so highly. Then, Michael Furey highlights an interesting trend in Australian equities; JP has let us publish the blog he wrote to his clients after attending Markets Summit 2016; Anatole Kaletsky puts up a very convincing argument as to why Brexit is just not going to happen; and, Jacob Mitchell explains how portfolios can benefit from selling/shorting the US high yield debt bubble.

Markets Summit 2016 - my key takeout
It was another great Markets Summit from PortfolioConstruction Forum last week. My key takeout is that correctly assessing China's future is one of the top three, if not the top, of our global priorities at this juncture.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
Opinion

Some simple Australian market analysis
Very few believe that past prices can tell you something about the future but there is a somewhat remarkable consistency to the trend of the Australian equity market returns over the last 45 years.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory White Paper

Why this is not deja-vu 2011
Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I'm sorry, I don't.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report |
Opinion

Why Brexit won't happen
Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal 2 comments Opinion

Sell/short beneficiaries of the US high yield debt bubble now
The extreme thirst for yield has pushed the US high yield cycle into unchartered territory. In a clear case of déjà vu (replace "subprime" for "high yield"), the cycle has reached the shakeout phase. It's time to sell/short the beneficiaries - issuers that have applied the funds to fast track corporate ambitions.
Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Partners
1.00 CE White Paper

Member comments
Complexity
The word 'complexity' is abused in our industry. It is mostly used to describe difficult choices with many variables. The models used to solve the problems are always the same outdated linear models no matter how many variables there are...

Michael Caldis, ANZ Private Bank Comment

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