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Our regular
Forum Fodder NZ email alerts Members to what's new on this site and
with our live professional development progams.
A sample of the Forum Fodder NZ email is below.
Become a Member (with our
compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning
centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying
papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white
papers, opinion papers and special interest; and,
subscription services from local and international investment
professionals and subject matter experts.
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Friday 18
March
2016 |
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Specialist, independent
investment continuing education & certification for portfolio
construction practitioners |
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Sequencing risk - what's your philosophy?
This week, we start with two seemingly diametrically
opposed views on the impact of sequencing risk and
how to manage it, from Tim Farrelly and Michael
Kitces. As always, I encourage you to read both and
decide your own philosophy! Chris Watling laments
over "helicopter money", arguing that ever more
unconventional policy won't cure the world's low
growth ills. Oliver Hartwich finds himself in two
minds about Brexit, while on the finology front,
Prof Moshe Milevsky starts a new series on investor
debt. And, we bring you Vimal Gor's top 5-rated
presentation from Markets Summit 2016 on why it's
time to sell out high yield and EM bond exposures.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing
education - Graham
P.S.
Registration is now open for Symposium 2016 -
THE NZ investment markets and strategies conference
of the year.
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LATEST... |
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Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?
We're often told that the answer to managing
sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility,
low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly
see it’s nuts!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
| Opinion
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Managing sequencing
risk and retirement date risk
Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators
as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures
in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing
risk management strategy.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
| 0.50
CE
| Research
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Helicopter money – really?
The policy response to a hugely levered global
economy has turned to a discussion about creating
money
to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever
more unconventional.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| 0.50
CE
| Opinion
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Should they
stay or should they go?
The Brexit
referendum is about where the British see the best
chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU
needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
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Opinion
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The day the King defaulted
The 1672 debt
default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old
tale of government finance that offers practical
lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.
Prof Moshe Milevsky, York University
| Opinion
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Don’t catch a falling knife: Avoid High yield and EM
bonds
The market continues to misprice the risk of large
scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the
time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while
you still can.
Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management | Resources
* Rated
in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Investment Outlook Reports
A very good article. Unfortunately the majority of
articles are quite biased towards the product... The one constant
seems to be that any active manager states that this
will be a market where stock picking is very
important...
Adrian Frinsdorf,
William Buck Wealth Advisors
| Comment
The science of forecasting
I agree
that most in our industry don't practice forecasting
as a science. I completely disagree if your
suggestion is that it is not field that is in some
way inherent unscientific, and cannot benefit from
employing scientific rigour...
Simon Russell,
Behavioural Finance Australia
| Comment |
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RECENTLY... |
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The value of an investment philosophy
Dom McCormick leads Fodder this week, questioning
the value of all the investment outlook newsletters
and presentations that litter the start of any
calendar year. In his own way, he's advocating what
PortfolioConstruction Forum has been preaching for
many years - the absolute necessity of a robust
investment philosophy to make sense of the deluge of
information and ideas available. He also makes a
good point about long-term vs short-term investing
(in line with our "the long and short of it" theme
for this year's Conference in August). Read Dom's
blog - and then with it in mind, dive into the 3
highest-rated presentations from Markets Summit
2016, featuring Chris Watling, Hamish Douglass and
Ron Temple arguing their best high conviction ideas
(all three arguing a longer-term perspective, Dom
will be pleased to note!). |
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Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the
vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces
are frequently useless to the average investor or
adviser.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners
| 2
comments
| Opinion
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Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Does it feel
like we've been here before? The more things change,
the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean
that, going forward, markets and asset classes will
behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over
again)?
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
| Resources
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The chickens are coming home to roost
For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money'
policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money'
recovery. With the Fed now two years into
tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost.
The equity bear market is underway.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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The
distorted reality is unwinding
The Fed
has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu
- there continues to be a great disagreement about
the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than
most expect and QT will impact on financial asset
volatility.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group
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Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Get ready for a record-length US recovery
This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is
still middle aged and has years to go before it
fades. While the easy money of the multi-year equity
market rally may be behind us, equity markets
continue to be attractive.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management
| Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Brexit
Anatole may well be correct about the result of the
UK Referendum on June 23rd. At this stage, in spite
of the finely balanced polls, I agree that the
Remain side has the advantage of “incumbency” with
now a whole generation of UK citizens now having no
direct experience of a non-EU world...
Garry Harradence,
Primeplan Securities
| Comment |
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