Forum Fodder NZ

PortfolioConstruction Forum

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our regular Forum Fodder NZ email alerts Members to what's new on this site and with our live professional development progams. A sample of the Forum Fodder NZ email is below.  Become a Member (with our compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
- Resources Kits - videos and podcasts of the sessions and accompanying papers from our live programs;
- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white papers, opinion papers and special interest; and,
   subscription services from local and international investment professionals and subject matter experts.


 


Friday 18 March 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners

Sequencing risk - what's your philosophy?
This week, we start with two seemingly diametrically opposed views on the impact of sequencing risk and how to manage it, from Tim Farrelly and Michael Kitces. As always, I encourage you to read both and decide your own philosophy! Chris Watling laments over "helicopter money", arguing that ever more unconventional policy won't cure the world's low growth ills. Oliver Hartwich finds himself in two minds about Brexit, while on the finology front, Prof Moshe Milevsky starts a new series on investor debt. And, we bring you Vimal Gor's top 5-rated presentation from Markets Summit 2016 on why it's time to sell out high yield and EM bond exposures.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Registration is now open for Symposium 2016 - THE NZ investment markets and strategies conference of the year.

LATEST...

Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?
We're often told that the answer to managing sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility, low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
Opinion

Managing sequencing risk and retirement date risk
Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing risk management strategy.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group 0.50 CE Research

Helicopter money – really?
The policy response to a hugely levered global economy has turned to a discussion about creating money to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever more unconventional.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics 0.50 CE  Opinion

Should they stay or should they go?
The Brexit referendum is about where the British see the best chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative |
Opinion

The day the King defaulted
The 1672 debt default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old tale of government finance that offers practical lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.
Prof Moshe Milevsky, York University
Opinion

Don’t catch a falling knife: Avoid High yield and EM bonds
The market continues to misprice the risk of large scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while you still can.
Vimal Gor, BT Investment ManagementResources
 * Rated in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Investment Outlook Reports
A very good article. Unfortunately the majority of articles are quite biased towards the product... The one constant seems to be that any active manager states that this will be a market where stock picking is very important...

Adrian Frinsdorf
, William Buck Wealth Advisors Comment

The science of forecasting
I agree that most in our industry don't practice forecasting as a science. I completely disagree if your suggestion is that it is not field that is in some way inherent unscientific, and cannot benefit from employing scientific rigour...
Simon Russell
, Behavioural Finance Australia Comment

RECENTLY...

The value of an investment philosophy
Dom McCormick leads Fodder this week, questioning the value of all the investment outlook newsletters and presentations that litter the start of any calendar year. In his own way, he's advocating what PortfolioConstruction Forum has been preaching for many years - the absolute necessity of a robust investment philosophy to make sense of the deluge of information and ideas available. He also makes a good point about long-term vs short-term investing (in line with our "the long and short of it" theme for this year's Conference in August). Read Dom's blog - and then with it in mind, dive into the 3 highest-rated presentations from Markets Summit 2016, featuring Chris Watling, Hamish Douglass and Ron Temple arguing their best high conviction ideas (all three arguing a longer-term perspective, Dom will be pleased to note!).

Are most annual Investment Outlooks worthless?
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the vast majority of annual investment outlook pieces are frequently useless to the average investor or adviser.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners 2 comments Opinion

Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Does it feel like we've been here before? The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same! Does that mean that, going forward, markets and asset classes will behave as in the past? Is it deja-vu (all over again)?
Graham Rich, PortfolioConstruction Forum
Resources

The chickens are coming home to roost
For six years, the Fed operated a 'cheap money' policy. As a result, we had a 'cheap money' recovery. With the Fed now two years into tightening, the chickens are coming home to roost. The equity bear market is underway.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics Resources
 * Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

The distorted reality is unwinding
The Fed has begun its interest rate tightening, and deja-vu - there continues to be a great disagreement about the quantum of the rises. Rates will go higher than most expect and QT will impact on financial asset volatility.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group |
Resources
* Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Get ready for a record-length US recovery
This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go before it fades. While the easy money of the multi-year equity market rally may be behind us, equity markets continue to be attractive.
Ronald Temple, Lazard Asset Management Resources
 * Rated in the top 3 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Brexit
Anatole may well be correct about the result of the UK Referendum on June 23rd. At this stage, in spite of the finely balanced polls, I agree that the Remain side has the advantage of “incumbency” with now a whole generation of UK citizens now having no direct experience of a non-EU world...

Garry Harradence
, Primeplan Securities Comment

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