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Our regular
Forum Fodder NZ email alerts Members to what's new on this site and
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A sample of the Forum Fodder NZ email is below.
Become a Member (with our
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centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
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- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white
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professionals and subject matter experts.
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Friday 01 April
2016 |
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Specialist, independent
investment continuing education & certification for portfolio
construction practitioners |
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Have your say
It's always struck me as odd that so few Members
question the views of our Faculty as highlighted in Fodder
each week. But not so
over the past two weeks - it's been great to see
Tim's and Michael's articles on sequencing
risk stirring up a storm of comment from Members
challenging their reasoning and conclusions.
It's what makes this a "Forum". On a
related note, we received a lot of
questions from delegates at Markets Summit for the
Faculty, and we've now posted our pick of the questions and
the Faculty has begun to answer them. You'll
find the Q&A on the session microsites in the
Markets Summit 2016 Resources Kit. As well as earning CE from "attending" the sessions online,
you can add your own questions for the Faculty to (you'll get an automatic
notification when you've
been answered).
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Registrations are filling fast for
Symposium 2016 (17/18 May, Auckland), THE NZ
investment markets and strategies conference of the
year |
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LATEST... |
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A global (quant) perspective on the Australian
equities
One might expect that Australia's high dividend
yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally
smaller companies means the Australian equity market
behaves like a global small cap with a value style
tilt. Is that true?
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
| 0.25
CE
| Research
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The Fed’s New Neutral rate
No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate
from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's
meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that
warrant serious thought.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
| Opinion
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When things fall apart
The economic
theories of the pre-crisis period – rational
expectations, efficient markets, the neutrality
of money – must be revised. Politicians must
encourage a revolution in economic thinking.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| Opinion
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It’s the
end of EU-rope as we know it
The EU has
been in crisis for many years. But you ain't seen
nothing yet. 2016 will change the nature of the EU and it might well signify deja-vu, the end of
Europe's process of political and economic
integration.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
| 0.50
CE
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1 comment |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Capturing the governance premium in less developed
markets
In the last 10
years, many companies from emerging economies have
closed the corporate governance gap relative to
their developed market counterparts. Such companies
find themselves in a sweet spot.
Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management
| Opinion
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Member comments
Prolonged low returns
Tim, your point about the prolonged period of low returns
is bang on the money but your implicit solution to
stay 100% invested in a volatile market does not
stand the test...
Aaron Minney,
Challenger
| Comment
You are correct but...
Unfortunately, the historic examples of
sequencing risk at its worst has always been during
the most volatile of equity markets...
Michael Furey,
Delta Research & Advisory
| Comment
S&P/ASX 200
I'd
like to see this scenario run with the 40% one year
dip replaced with the actual S&P/ASX 200 returns
starting just prior to the GFC...
Brendan Swift, Collaborative Media & Publishing
| Comment
The question is how...?
... how
much pain will be endured to bring global debt back
down to normal levels? Are talking a Great
Depression type proportion or a more gradual
reduction over, say, 10 or 20 years?
Stuart Bailey,
KAS Financial Advisers
| Comment
Long-term returns
I strongly disagree Michael. I enjoy and appreciate
your work on long-term investment matters but I
believe you have inputted unrealistic expectations
and then come to a poor conclusion.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Financial Services
| Comment
Fasten your seatbelt for a volatile 2016
Thanks, some great questions here – I appreciate the
opportunity to respond. 1. If the best case is that
the global economy "muddles through", why would
anyone own equities?
Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management
| Comment |
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RECENTLY... |
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Sequencing risk - what's your philosophy?
This week, we start with two seemingly diametrically
opposed views on the impact of sequencing risk and
how to manage it, from Tim Farrelly and Michael
Kitces. As always, I encourage you to read both and
decide your own philosophy! Chris Watling laments
over "helicopter money", arguing that ever more
unconventional policy won't cure the world's low
growth ills. Oliver Hartwich finds himself in two
minds about Brexit, while on the finology front, Prof
Moshe Milevsky starts a new series on investor debt.
And, we bring you Vimal Gor's top 5-rated
presentation from Markets Summit 2016 on why it's
time to sell out high yield and EM bond exposures.
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Registration is now open for Symposium 2016 -
THE NZ investment markets and strategies conference
of the year. |
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Reduce volatility to reduce sequencing risk?
We're often told that the answer to managing
sequencing risk lies in locking into low volatility,
low return strategies. It’s nuts and you can clearly
see it’s nuts!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
| 17
comments
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Opinion
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Managing sequencing
risk and retirement date risk
Sequencing risk is just as relevant for accumulators
as it is retirees. Decreasing growth asset exposures
in the lead up to retirement may be a very appealing
risk management strategy.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
| 0.50
CE
| 4
comments
| Research
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Helicopter money – really?
The policy response to a hugely levered global
economy has turned to a discussion about creating
money
to fund fiscal stimulus. The cure is not going ever
more unconventional.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics
| 0.50
CE
| 3
comments
| Opinion
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Should they
stay or should they go?
The Brexit
referendum is about where the British see the best
chances for their future. The 'Out' camp has the better arguments. The EU
needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
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Opinion
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The day the King defaulted
The 1672 debt
default by the British Exchequer is a 360-year-old
tale of government finance that offers practical
lessons to indebted consumers in the 21st century.
Prof Moshe Milevsky, York University
| Opinion
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Don’t catch a falling knife: Avoid High yield and EM
bonds
The market continues to misprice the risk of large
scale defaults and debt restructures. Now is the
time to sell high yield and EM bonds exposure, while
you still can.
Vimal Gor, BT Investment Management
| 0.50
CE
| 1
comment | Resources
* Rated
in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Investment Outlook Reports
A very good article. Unfortunately the majority of
articles are quite biased towards the product... The one constant
seems to be that any active manager states that this
will be a market where stock picking is very
important...
Adrian Frinsdorf,
William Buck Wealth Advisors
| Comment
The science of forecasting
I agree
that most in our industry don't practice forecasting
as a science. I completely disagree if your
suggestion is that it is not field that is in some
way inherent unscientific, and cannot benefit from
employing scientific rigour...
Simon Russell,
Behavioural Finance Australia
| Comment |
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