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Our regular
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Friday 08 April
2016 |
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Specialist, independent
investment continuing education & certification for portfolio
construction practitioners |
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Diversification, stats and unconventional monetary
policy
With diversification the holy grail for portfolios, Michael Kitces' paper
this week is a useful insight on what real
diversification is (it starts simply but stick with
it!). Michael Mauboussin then reminds us of what to look for
in a good statistic, and Oliver Hartwich offers up two
stats on the euro
crisis becoming permanent. Nouriel Roubini argues unconventional monetary policy is now
conventional, and ever more unconventional policies
are needed. And if you're wondering what that means for
portfolios, check out Dr Bob Gay's presentation from
Markets Summit.
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Register now for Symposium 2016 (17/18 May,
Auckland), THE NZ investment markets and
strategies conference of the year. |
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LATEST... |
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Is that portfolio really diversified?
Being properly diversified means always
having to say you're sorry as some investment's not moving in the same direction as the rest.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
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Research
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What makes a useful
statistic?
The worlds of business, investing, and sports are
awash in numbers, yet we rarely pause to consider
what makes a statistic
suitable.
Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse
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Research
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An ECB dead end
You may
have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over.
Two figures show we're still right in
the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become
permanent.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
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Opinion
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Unconventional unconventional monetary policy
Unconventional monetary policies have themselves
become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have
to continue their fight with a new set of
"unconventional unconventional" policies.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics
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Opinion
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Debt cycles don't repeat themselves - but this one
rhymes
A 50-year
era of inflation is ending and we are left no
inflation, little growth and too much debt. China's
slowdown and the current oil glut are early signs
that this debt bubble may end badly.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
| 0.50
CE
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1 comment |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Member comments
Prolonged low returns
I didn't mean to imply that the solution
was to be 100% invested in volatile assets. The
solution lies in reducing the chance that the first
ten years will be poor rather than by reducing
volatility...
Tim Farrelly,
farrelly's Investment Strategy
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Response to Stuart
Good question. If you look at western
debt levels, across most sectors of most economies,
debt has been flat...
Chris Watling,
Longview Economics
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Realistic long-term returns
Mark, with all due respect, I'm not certain how you
can characterise returns of 0.4%pa and 15.6%pa
"unrealistic" over 10-year time periods, when in
fact those returns are almost directly in line with
recent real-world experience...
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group
| Comment
The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom
In the
long term, oil markets are no different from any
other commodity market.
Amy Teh,
Colonial First State
| Comment
Demographic shifts are polarising investment
opportunities
Demographic trends are a
"known" that will play
out over the very long term. Nigeria will become 3rd
most populous country by 2045...
Aneta Wynimko, Fidelity International
| Comment |
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A global (quant) perspective on the Australian
equities
One might expect that Australia's high dividend
yield, currently lower PE Ratio and generally
smaller companies means the Australian equity market
behaves like a global small cap with a value style
tilt. Is that true?
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
| 0.25
CE
| | Research
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The Fed’s New Neutral rate
No one expected the FOMC to change its policy rate
from 0.25% to 0.50% this month - but this month's
meeting still provided plenty of unusual twists that
warrant serious thought.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
| Opinion
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When things fall apart
The economic
theories of the pre-crisis period – rational
expectations, efficient markets, the neutrality of
money – must be revised.
Anatole Kaletsky, GaveKal
| Opinion
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It’s the
end of EU-rope as we know it
The EU has
been in crisis for many years. But you ain't seen
nothing yet. 2016 will change the nature of the EU and it might well signify deja-vu, the end of
Europe's process of political and economic
integration.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative
| 0.50
CE
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1 comment |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 5 presentations by Markets Summit 2016
delegates
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Capturing the governance premium in less developed
markets
In the last 10
years, many companies from emerging economies have
closed the corporate governance gap relative to
their developed market counterparts. Such companies
find themselves in a sweet spot.
Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management
| Opinion
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Member comments
Prolonged low returns
Tim, your point about the prolonged period of low
returns is bang on the money but your implicit
solution to stay 100% invested in a volatile market
does not stand the test...
Aaron Minney,
Challenger
| Comment
You are correct but...
Unfortunately, the historic examples of sequencing
risk at its worst has always been during the most
volatile of equity markets...
Michael Furey,
Delta Research & Advisory
| Comment
S&P/ASX 200
I'd
like to see this scenario run with the 40% one year
dip replaced with the actual S&P/ASX 200 returns
starting just prior to the GFC...
Brendan Swift, Collaborative Media & Publishing
| Comment
The question is how...?
... how
much pain will be endured to bring global debt back
down to normal levels? Are talking a Great
Depression type proportion or a more gradual
reduction over, say, 10 or 20 years?
Stuart Bailey,
KAS Financial Advisers
| Comment
Long-term returns
I strongly disagree Michael. I enjoy and appreciate
your work on long-term investment matters but I
believe you have inputted unrealistic expectations
and then come to a poor conclusion.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Financial Services
| Comment
Fasten your seatbelt for a volatile 2016
Thanks, some great questions here – I appreciate the
opportunity to respond. 1. If the best case is that
the global economy "muddles through", why would
anyone own equities?
Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Investment Management
| Comment |
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