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Friday 15 April 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners


NIRP - is it the death knell for retirement?
Fodder kicks off with Tim Farrelly sharing the investment lessons he's learned from Japan that he now applies to portfolios. Dr Woody Brock and economist John Mauldin then each focus on the "catastrophe" (Woody's words) of negative interest rates for portfolios and our retirement expectations. John predicts it's the end of retirement as we know it! But money isn't everything in retirement, as Dr Jo Earl shows with her research on how a person's resources impact how well they adjust to retirement (financial resources, yes, but also five other types). Test yourself, at least, but I'd say all your clients, too. Lastly, on resources of the other type, Dr Joanne Warner explains which commodities have the best fundamentals for recovery, in her top 10 rated Markets Summit presentation.
the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. The Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA®) 2016 program is filling fast. CIMA offers you an unrivalled opportunity to formally equip yourself with the knowledge and skills to build better quality investment portfolios – and be recognised for it.


Investment lessons from Japan
Often in markets, you do get the feeling that somehow we've been here before. But things are never quite the same. Looking at some examples from the past, particularly Japan, we can see what can we learn and apply to our investment decisions.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |

News that should shock nobody
I awoke to read three pieces in the papers. These items contained news that would have surprised nobody, had global economic and market commentators been doing their job of properly interpreting the news.
Dr Woody Brock, SED |

ZIRP & NIRP - killing retirement as we know it
Retirees and their pensions are being sacrificed for what now passes as "the greater good." ZIRP has created a massive problem for retirement savers and pension fund managers. NIRP will make their problem worse.
John Mauldin, Mauldin Economics |

How to identify retirement resources that matter
It's a sad fact that not everyone adjusts well to retirement. It's estimated that about one third of retirees have problems adapting after leaving full time work. So why do some people fail to adapt? A Dynamic Resource Model provides a potential solution.
Dr Joanne Earl, Flinders University | 1.00 CE  |

The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom
In a cyclical sector like commodity, deja-vu abounds for those with a long memory. As the outlook improves, equities usually rally before commodity prices, responding to improved demand forecasts.
Dr Joanne Warner, Colonial First State Gl Asset Mgmt 0.50 CE  | 2 comments |
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Anything but a new paradigm
There have been a lot of positive things that have happened in Japan over the past four years...
Matthew Sherwood
, Perpetual Australia Comment

There's nowhere to run, nowhere to hide... but plenty of risks
The longer the time frame, the higher the potential return. This is a because a longer time frame allows more time to recover from negative returns, which implies it is possible to take more risk...
Natalie Comino
, NAB Asset Management Comment

A global (quant) perspective on the Australian equities market
An interesting and informative read...
Michael Beuvink, Vision Financial Management


Is that portfolio really diversified?
Being properly diversified means always having to say you're sorry as some investment's not moving in the same direction as the rest.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group |

What makes a useful statistic?
The worlds of business, investing, and sports are awash in numbers, yet we rarely pause to consider what makes a statistic suitable.
Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse |

An ECB dead end
You may have concluded by now that the euro crisis is over. Two figures show we're still right in the middle of the euro crisis. And it has become permanent.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative |

Unconventional unconventional monetary policy
Unconventional monetary policies have themselves become conventional. Monetary policymakers will have to continue their fight with a new set of "unconventional unconventional" policies.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics |

Debt cycles don't repeat themselves - but this one rhymes
A 50-year era of inflation is ending and we are left no inflation, little growth and too much debt. China's slowdown and the current oil glut are early signs that this debt bubble may end badly.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers 0.50 CE  |
1 comment | Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2016 delegates

Member comments
Prolonged low returns
I didn't mean to imply that the solution was to be 100% invested in volatile assets. The solution lies in reducing the chance that the first ten years will be poor rather than by reducing volatility...
Tim Farrelly
, farrelly's Investment Strategy Comment

Response to Stuart
Good question. If you look at western debt levels, across most sectors of most economies, debt has been flat...
Chris Watling
, Longview Economics Comment

Realistic long-term returns
Mark, with all due respect, I'm not certain how you can characterise returns of 0.4%pa and 15.6%pa "unrealistic" over 10-year time periods, when in fact those returns are almost directly in line with recent real-world experience...
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group

The resources cycle is getting closer to the bottom
In the long term, oil markets are no different from any other commodity market.
Amy Teh
, Colonial First State Comment

Demographic shifts are polarising investment opportunities
Demographic trends are a "known" that will play out over the very long term. Nigeria will become 3rd most populous country by 2045...
Aneta Wynimko, Fidelity International

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