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Our regular
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with our live professional development progams.
A sample of the Forum Fodder email is below.
Become a Member (with our
compliments) to receive Forum Fodder and access our multi-media learning
centre, PortfolioConstruction.com.au (this site) featuring:
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- Perspectives library - exclusive interviews, research papers, white
papers, opinion papers and special interest; and,
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Friday 03 June
2016 |
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Specialist, independent
investment continuing education & certification for portfolio
construction practitioners |
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Geo-politics back in the spotlight
Following last week's special feature on Professor
Niall Ferguson's presentation at our Symposium 2016,
this
week we bring you Dr Keith Suter's top-rated
presentation on geo-politics and investing. Keith is
surprisingly upbeat! BCA Research's Marko
Papic then argues that while the Middle East gets
most attention, simmering tensions in East Asia are
of more concern to investors. Dr Bob Gay explains
why central bankers could be accused of insanity
(and the likely investment fallout) while Michael
Furey explores the truth about the influence of
equity exposures on portfolio risk (it's both more
and less than you might think). Finally, SSGA's Dan
Farley offers us 10 "gray swans" to keep in mind
when building portfolios (to go with a very gray
winter's day here in Sydney!).
All
the best for a great weekend's continuing education -
Graham
P.S. Next stop... Africa! The New Zealand
Initiative (led by one of our core Faculty, Dr
Oliver Hartwich) is hosting Kiwi entrepreneur, Rich
Lister and pioneer of capital markets in Central and
Eastern Europe and Africa,
Stephen Jennings, for a dinner lecture on Thursday
14 July. Whether or not you are a likely
investor in Africa, it's a subject worth learning
more about - so do join us! |
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LATEST... |
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Pay attention to geo-politics when making investment
decisions
The world
seems an increasingly dangerous place, driven by
uncertainty and conflict. Yet on many measures, it
is becoming safer. More than ever, investors
need to filter out the noise and consider emerging
geo-political developments shaping the world.
Dr Keith Suter, Global Directions
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1 comment
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Resources
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East Asia tensions simmer
Investors are not accounting for the structural
shifts taking place in East Asia that raise the
probability of market-negative events. Asia- or EM-dedicated
investors should hedge their risks by exposure to DM
assets.
Marko Papic, BCA Research
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White Paper
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Insanity
Insanity is repeating the same mistakes and
expecting different results. Central bankers seem
intent on repeating their mistakes - especially when
it comes to negative interest rates.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
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Opinion
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How much risk do equities contribute to diversified
strategies?
Many have spoken of the significant risks funds
carry with Australian equities exposures. So I
thought I'd check the evidence on the influence of
equities on multi-asset portfolios.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
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Research
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10 "Gray Swans"
By definition, Black Swans are unknowable - they
should surprise us. But here are 10 "gray swans"
complicating the outlook for markets and portfolio
construction.
Dan Farley, State Street Global Advisors
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Opinion
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Member comments
Same problem with optimisers
Hear, hear Tim. And it is the exact same problem
with using an optimization model. Users of the tool
are often poor at estimating appropriate inputs;
GIGO...
Rob
Pereira, Victorian Funds Management Corp
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Evidence of decision-making bias
I think this is a great demonstration of a couple of
major decision-making biases that can beset
sophisticated investment decision-makers...
Simon Russell, Behavioural Finance Australia
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Information Tech
Will IT break down religious borders?
Murray Rutherford, JBWere
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Nailed it
Great summary of the issues and concerns Dom, but as
PK noted, in the race of life always back self
interest whether politicians, REIA or dare I say,
the banks...
David
Hyde, MC2 Wealth
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RECENTLY... |
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Secular stagnation or inflection point? The
post-crisis world in historical perspective
With a
growing number of central banks resorting to
negative interest rates and the IMF acknowledging
the risk of secular stagnation, investors could be
forgiven for feeling nervous. Yet there is some
evidence that the global economy may be at an
inflection point.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Resources
Chapter 1: The global economy is at an inflection
point
Chapter 2: Further evidence the secular stagnation
thesis is wrong
Chapter 3: Five key risks that could derail the
recovery
Chapter 4: Q&A Panel, featuring Dr Oliver Hartwich,
Dr Keith Suter & Tim Farrelly
Chapter 5: Thanks featuring Andrew Mehrtens |
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The global recovery is here - but may yet be
derailed
Economists and investors risk being blindsided by a
global upswing that is already underway, financial
historian Professor Niall Ferguson explained at
Symposium 2016.
Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum
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Opinion
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Brexit now and we will only have to Breturn
The lesson of history is that British isolationism
is a trigger for continental disintegration. A vote
for Brexit will mean Britain will have to "Breturn"
sooner or later, to sort out the ensuing mess.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Opinion
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The world will bounce back from the blues in the
loos
But if Trump confounds my Republican
friends by winning their party's nomination and then
the presidency, all bets will be off.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Opinion
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The Great Degeneration
Filmed
exclusively for PortfolioConstruction Forum,
Professor Niall Ferguson describes the
"institutional malaise" that is threatening 500
years of development in the West.
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
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Opinion
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Member comments
Poor assumptions the problem, not Monte Carlo
analysis
Totally agree with the premise that using past
performance data in generating Monte Carlo
projections is of very dubious value...
Tim
Farrelly, farrelly's
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Investment
grade credit - income without capital
The
negative correlation between interest rates and
credit spreads is a powerful combination in a
portfolio context which helps reduce portfolio
volatility...
Robert Mead, PIMCO
| Comment
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