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Friday 22 July 2016

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification for portfolio construction practitioners

A hard Brexit | More on withdrawal rates | Magellan turns 10
Time flies! I can't believe it's 10 years since I interviewed Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay as they launched the Magellan Global Fund and explained their "edge" and how they planned to grow - watch the video now and see how prophetic they were.  Then, read Michael Mauboussin's latest paper about organisation structure and investment performance - the best things come in threes, it seems.  We also feature another look at portfolio deconstruction and "safe" withdrawal rates, including a different, simple approach to the common 4% rule. Oxford's Kevin O'Rourke argues Britain is heading for a "hard" Brexit. And we feature Mint Asset Management's Paul Richardson explaining at Symposium 2016 why portfolios can still reach their goals despite negative rates.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Conference 2016 - The long and short of it - standard registration is now sold out, but you can still register and attend as a Live Site delegate.


Deserting the battle for Britain
The UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.
Kevin O’Rourke, University of Oxford |

Inverted withdrawal rates and the sequence of returns bonus
Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.
John Walton, University of Texas |
0.50 CE | White Paper

Reach portfolio goals despite negative interest rates
Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that negative interest rates globally pose to their goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth assets and a TAA approach.
Paul Richardson, Mint Asset Management |
0.50 CE | 1 comment | Resources

Acorn to oak tree in 10 years
It's 10 years since the Forum interviewed Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay - as the firm launched the now behemoth Magellan Global Fund - about why their investment approach was better...
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group |

Form follows function (org structure and investment results)
New research has found that teams of three portfolio managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk, than single individuals or teams of other sizes.
Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse |
White Paper

Member comments

Form follows function (org structure and investment results)
We believe (and are testing the hypothesis through further research sponsored by the US Government) that decision making and managing risk vs. return tradeoffs is a "muscle" - the more you exercise it in the real world, the better you are...
Bernard Del Rey, Capital Preferences | Comment

Rebalancing and compliance
Interesting article. However, you are correct in that the challenge with many ideas and theories is the practical application...
Kevin Wyld, Financial Simplicity | Comment

Is there scope for using active managers?
Does the use of active managers invalidate modelling based on broad market or index performance? Yogi Berra strikes again : in theory active management could mean the index is irrelevant, but, in practice, this is rarely the case...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment


QE and ZIRP have introduced massive distortions?
QE has caused massive investment distortions. Ditto the ZIRP and NIRP policies of many central banks. Beware - the chickens are coming home to roost! It seems plausible, but...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |

A comment on BREXIT
The reality is that Brexit will hurt everyone involved more than was admitted during the campaign. Investors should expect heightened volatility, not only of stocks, but even of government bonds.
Dr Woody Brock, SED |

How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best?
The "best" retirement income strategy may be very different depending on whether you measure based on wealth, spending, probabilities of success, magnitudes of failure, or utility functions that weigh both the upside and downside risks.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group |
0.50 CE 1 comment | Research

Ride the cycle but structural weakness will come to matter more
Investors need to be wary that without much needed reform, structural weaknesses in many advanced and developing economies will be the ultimate determinant of longer-term returns.
Bevan Graham, AMP Capital NZ |
0.50 CE | 1 comment | Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Symposium 2016 delegates

US elections have been good for long-term investors
As the battle for the White House heats up, candidates are drawing attention to the challenges facing the nation. But whatever the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential election, we believe the impact on markets will be about the same.
Capital Group |

Member comments

Can advisers compete with Robo's?
In theory, no. Fortunately, Yogi Berra's law applies. "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |

Retirement resources that matter: Q+A
I'm not advocating that financial planners try to be marriage counselors, doctors or psychologists but there are benefits to understanding the whole client...
Dr Joanne Earl, Flinders University |

Cashflows - in and out
Thanks Michael, interesting article. However, you are correct in that the challenge with many ideas and theories is the practical application...
Mark Carroll, Morvest Financial Planning |

Rebalancing Software
Mark, the implementational challenges of rebalancing are something that - fortunately - are very conducive to technology solutions...
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group |


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