Globalisation & populism | Populism, Brexit & Trump | Trump & investment
Dom McCormick kicks things off this week, suggesting that LICs offer a rare alpha opportunity in a low return world. Chris Joye also picks up on the low return dilemma, and the conflict between short-term opportunism and long-term investment goals. Yale's Stephen Roach then explains the rise of populism (Brexit, Trump) as a failure of "Globalisation 2.0".  PIMCO's Libby Cantrill argues that while both Brexit and Trump are the result of populism, there are "meaningful differences" between the two. You can hear more from Chris and Libby in their keynote addresses at our upcoming Conference (24/25 August). Lastly, BCA Research's Marko Papic ties a bow on it all by explaining what a Trump presidency would mean for investment markets.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Each of this week's Fodder offerings plays to the central theme of Conference 2016 - The long and short of it (is the concept of long-term investing increasingly irrelevant?). Register now!

LATEST...

Investing
Discount narrowing - a valuable source of returns
With most asset classes offering limited return potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs can be a valuable source.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion

Markets
Central banks encourage irrational hedonism
How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?
Chris Joye, Smarter Money Investments | Opinion

Markets
The globalisation disconnect
While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Opinion

Markets
Brexit, Populism and Trump
Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | Opinion

Markets / Strategies
Trump, Presidential powers and investment implications
What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.
Marko Papic, BCA Research | White Paper

Member comments

The Eurozone is an economic calamity
I would expect break-up of the eurozone to hasten necessary reforms in the EU....
Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | Comment

Right now inflation is the most important macro indicator
While inflation targeting has proved a tough job since the GFC, I haven't picked up any sign in central banking circles that they will abandon inflation-targeting...
Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | Comment

China is falling into the middle income trap
[China's] anti-corruption campaign was initially launched by Xi Jinping as a genuine attempt to clean the party...
Alex Wolf, Standard Life Investments | Comment

RECENTLY...

Markets
Deserting the battle for Britain
The UK is headed for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but from Europe's single market. It will cost the country dearly.
Kevin O’Rourke, University of Oxford | Opinion

Strategies
Inverted withdrawal rates and the sequence of returns bonus
Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate" approach may be a better approach than the traditional 4% rule.
John Walton, University of Texas | 0.50 CE | White Paper

Strategies
Reach portfolio goals despite negative interest rates
Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that negative interest rates globally pose to their goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth assets and a TAA approach.
Paul Richardson, Mint Asset Management | 0.50 CE | 1 comment | Resources

Investing
Acorn to oak tree in 10 years
It's 10 years since the Forum interviewed Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay - as the firm launched the now behemoth Magellan Global Fund - about why their investment approach was better...
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | Opinion

Investing
Form follows function (org structure and investment results)
New research has found that teams of three portfolio managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk, than single individuals or teams of other sizes.
Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse | White Paper

Member comments

Form follows function (org structure and investment results)
We believe (and are testing the hypothesis through further research sponsored by the US Government) that decision making and managing risk vs. return tradeoffs is a "muscle" - the more you exercise it in the real world, the better you are...
Bernard Del Rey, Capital Preferences | Comment

Rebalancing and compliance
Interesting article. However, you are correct in that the challenge with many ideas and theories is the practical application...
Kevin Wyld, Financial Simplicity | Comment

Is there scope for using active managers?
Does the use of active managers invalidate modelling based on broad market or index performance? Yogi Berra strikes again : in theory active management could mean the index is irrelevant, but, in practice, this is rarely the case...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment

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