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Globalisation & populism | Populism, Brexit & Trump
| Trump & investment
Dom McCormick kicks things off this week, suggesting
that LICs offer a rare alpha opportunity in a low
return world. Chris Joye also picks up on the low
return dilemma, and the conflict between short-term
opportunism and long-term investment goals. Yale's
Stephen Roach then explains the rise of populism (Brexit,
Trump) as a failure of "Globalisation 2.0".
PIMCO's Libby Cantrill argues that while both Brexit
and Trump are the result of populism, there are
"meaningful differences" between the two.
We'll hear more from Chris and Libby in their keynote
addresses at
our upcoming Conference (24/25 August). Lastly,
BCA Research's Marko Papic ties a bow on it all by
explaining
what a Trump presidency would mean for investment
markets.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing
education - Graham
P.S.
Each
of this week's Fodder offerings plays to the central
theme of our upcoming Conference 2016 program in
Sydney. But you don't have to travel, you'll be able
to "attend" online after the program and earn CE
hours.
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LATEST... |
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Investing
Discount narrowing - a valuable source of returns
With most asset classes offering limited return
potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but
finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs
can be a valuable source.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners |
Opinion
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Markets
Central banks encourage irrational hedonism
How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes
don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do
we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at
an unknowable future date?
Chris Joye, Smarter Money Investments
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Opinion
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Markets
The globalisation disconnect
While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation
suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit
and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship
at the altar of free trade – including me – must
come to grips with this glaring disconnect.
Stephen Roach, Yale University
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Opinion
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Markets
Brexit, Populism and Trump
Populism in developed countries is real, but there
are meaningful differences between the UK and US
stories that are important to keep in mind in the
run-up to US Presidential election.
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO |
Opinion
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Markets / Strategies
Trump, Presidential powers and investment
implications
What are the investment implications of a potential
Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it
could be positive for equities and negative for
bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium
term.
Marko Papic, BCA Research |
White Paper
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Member comments
The Eurozone is an economic calamity
I would expect break-up of the eurozone to hasten
necessary reforms in the EU....
Bruce Campbell,
Pyrford International |
Comment
Right now inflation is the most important macro
indicator
While inflation targeting has proved a tough job
since the GFC, I haven't picked up any sign in
central banking circles that they will abandon
inflation-targeting...
Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management
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Comment
China is falling into the
middle income trap
[China's] anti-corruption campaign was initially
launched by Xi Jinping as a genuine attempt to clean
the party...
Alex
Wolf, Standard Life Investments
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Comment
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RECENTLY... |
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Markets
Deserting the battle for Britain
The UK is headed
for a "hard" Brexit - not just from the Union, but
from Europe's single market. It will cost the
country dearly.
Kevin O’Rourke, University of Oxford |
Opinion
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Strategies
Inverted withdrawal rates and the sequence of
returns bonus
Decumulation requires a tradeoff between preserving
capital and obtaining income. A very simple "inverted withdraw rate"
approach may be a better approach than the
traditional 4% rule.
John Walton, University of Texas
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0.50
CE
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White Paper
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Strategies
Reach portfolio goals despite negative interest
rates
Investors are slowly awakening to the threat that
negative interest rates globally pose to their
goals. Diversified funds need a higher mix of growth
assets and a TAA approach.
Paul Richardson, Mint Asset Management |
0.50
CE |
1 comment
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Resources
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Investing
Acorn to oak tree in 10 years
It's 10 years since the Forum interviewed Hamish
Douglass and Chris Mackay - as the firm launched the
now behemoth Magellan Global Fund - about why their
investment approach was better...
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group |
Opinion
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Investing
Form follows function (org structure and investment
results)
New research has found that teams of three portfolio
managers deliver higher gains, adjusted for risk,
than single individuals
or teams of other sizes.
Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse
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White Paper
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Member comments
Form follows function (org structure and investment
results)
We believe (and are testing the hypothesis through
further research sponsored by the US Government)
that decision making and managing risk vs. return
tradeoffs is a "muscle" - the more you exercise it
in the real world, the better you are...
Bernard Del Rey, Capital Preferences |
Comment
Rebalancing and compliance
Interesting article. However, you are correct in
that the challenge with many ideas and theories is
the practical application...
Kevin Wyld, Financial Simplicity |
Comment
Is there scope for using active managers?
Does the use of active managers invalidate modelling
based on broad market or index performance? Yogi
Berra strikes again : in theory active management
could mean the index is irrelevant, but, in
practice, this is rarely the case...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |
Comment
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