"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future"
A hat tip to Robert Storm Petersen - his is a very apt quote for this week's Fodder (and investing generally).  Tim Farrelly kicks things off by questioning the common mis?perception that Australia hasn't had a recession in a very long time. Nouriel Roubini predicts what Brexit will mean long term, while Bill O'Grady gives his pick of the top five geopolitical issues to consider short term. Michael Kitces explains that the problem with setting long-term investment goals is that we're all really, really bad at knowing what we'll be like in a decade, let alone 20 or 30 years. And Invesco argues that a two- to three-year investment horizon is the "sweet spot". 
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Our upcoming Conference focuses on managing the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives when building portfolios. Register now!

LATEST...

Markets
26 years without a recession. Or six? Or maybe only two?
How long since Australia had a recession? Most would say 26 years. A world record. Looking at the data a little differently, we may not be so sure that Australia has gone 26 years without a hiccup.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Opinion

Markets
Europe's Brexit hangover
The EU's post-Brexit show of unity calmed fears that the EU or the eurozone would fall apart in short order. But the risk of European and global volatility may have been only briefly postponed.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics | Opinion

Markets
The mid-year geopolitical outlook
There are five geopolitically important issues for portfolios for the upcoming year. If these concerns become critical, they will likely weigh on equities and higher credit risk debt.
Bill O'Grady, Confluence Investment Management | Opinion

Strategies
The end of history illusion and goals-based investing
Research suggests we have remarkably little insight into our future preferences. So a key challenge of goals-based investing is that we save towards a goal that isn't what we want when the time comes.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | 0.25 CE | Opinion

Strategies
Mind the gap
Considering structural and cyclical drivers can help reveal investment opportunities, if an appropriate timeframe is defined. A two- to three-year period is an under researched view.
Georgina Taylor & Danielle Singer, Invesco Perpetual | White Paper

Member comments

Quality is a critical factor in constructing portfolios
The addition of the Piotroski quality factor to a simple profitability screen results in higher returns and lower volatility of returns...
Andrew Bascand, Harbour Asset Management | Comment

Central banks encourage irrational hedonism
Irrational hedonism... is that an oxymoron? (Comments from a lowly adviser/poor student of English).
Mitchell Fleming, Tortoise Financial Services | Comment

RECENTLY...

Investing
Discount narrowing - a valuable source of returns
With most asset classes offering limited return potential, there is a drive for more alpha, but finding it is not easy. Discount narrowing on LICs can be a valuable source.
Dominic McCormick, Select Investment Partners | Opinion

Markets
Central banks encourage irrational hedonism
How do we survive when liquid, safe asset classes don’t offer income to cover the cost of living? Do we speculate today? Or wait for it to normalise at an unknowable future date?
Chris Joye, Smarter Money Investments | 1 comment | Opinion

Markets
The globalisation disconnect
While seemingly elegant in theory, globalisation suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Opinion

Markets
Brexit, Populism and Trump
Populism in developed countries is real, but there are meaningful differences between the UK and US stories that are important to keep in mind in the run-up to US Presidential election.
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO | Opinion

Markets / Strategies
Trump, Presidential powers and investment implications
What are the investment implications of a potential Trump presidency? In the short term, we think it could be positive for equities and negative for bonds, but negative for US equities in the medium term.
Marko Papic, BCA Research | White Paper

Member comments

The Eurozone is an economic calamity
I would expect break-up of the eurozone to hasten necessary reforms in the EU....
Bruce Campbell, Pyrford International | Comment

Right now inflation is the most important macro indicator
While inflation targeting has proved a tough job since the GFC, I haven't picked up any sign in central banking circles that they will abandon inflation-targeting...
Christian Hawkesby, Harbour Asset Management | Comment

China is falling into the middle income trap
[China's] anti-corruption campaign was initially launched by Xi Jinping as a genuine attempt to clean the party...
Alex Wolf, Standard Life Investments | Comment

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