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Sowing the seeds...
This week, Fodder kicks off with Dr Bob Gay giving
his unique insider's view of the Fed's recent
meeting in Jackson Hole, warning that central banks
are now feeding the debt beast rather than taming
it, thereby sowing the seeds of the next crisis.
However, Professor of Economics at Berkeley, J.
Bradford DeLong, notes that, on average,
material wellbeing triples every 50 years or so and
there's no reasonable basis to assume this won't
continue. Michael Kitces offers a pithy (6-minute)
video insight into a barbell approach to building
portfolios to cope with investors' long and
short-term needs. Michael Furey shows that moving
beyond the usual simple, time-based fund performance
measures reveals a wealth of more useful information
about funds. And lastly, we showcase our pick of the
Faculty papers from our recent Conference - UBS
Asset Management's Jeff Grow on the case for
sticking with fixed interest.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing
education - Graham
P.S.
Mark your
diary now for Symposium 2017 (16-17 May)
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LATEST... |
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Markets
Monetary reform - looking in the wrong places
Zero and especially negative nominal interest
rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late
phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles
and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next
crisis.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers
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Opinion
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Markets
The economic trend is our friend
Economic growth since 2008 has been profoundly
disappointing and pessimism understandably comes
easy these days – perhaps too easy. If we look at
global economic growth over the next 30 to 60 years,
the picture looks much brighter.
J. Bradford DeLong, University of California |
White Paper
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Strategy
Flexibility is key to goals-based strategies
Individuals underestimate the degree to which their
lives will change over the long-term, so how can
practitioners build portfolios which are likely to
meet their clients' future needs?
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group |
Opinion
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Investing
Look for the signal within the noise
Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an
approach to cutting through fund performance "noise"
to find the signal - the bigger picture investment
view that enables us to construct better investment
portfolios.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory |
Research
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Markets/Investing
Spurn the supernova and fight the fear of fixed
income
Bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a
supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's
time to spurn this talk, and stick with the core,
defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.
Jeff Grow, UBS Asset Management |
White Paper
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Bakers dozen
Perhaps I'm missing something... Firstly, isn't
the constant price series rebased each year as a
reasonable response to the distortions you refer to?
Stephen Romic, DFS Advisory Services
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Comment
Bakers dozens
This is not really a matter of distortions, just
different measurements capturing different effects.
As for the new bakers production...all I can say is
good try!
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |
Comment
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RECENTLY... |
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Philosophy/Markets/Strategy/Investing/Finology
Backgrounder: The long and short of it
Irrespective of your personal perspectives on time,
managing the fundamental frictions between the long-
and short-term is an important challenge. This
Backgrounder explores some of the key concepts and
debates in relation to long- and short-term
thinking, as they pertain to investment and markets.
PortfolioConstruction Forum
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White Paper
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Philosophy/Markets/Strategies/Investing/Finology
Conference 2016 - The long and short of it - key
takeouts
Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high
conviction ideas on how to manage the friction
between short-term and long-term investing
imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.
Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum |
Key takeouts
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Philosophy
Engaging investors' long-term view is our moral duty
By encouraging investors to control their emotions
and by choosing the right funds, we can help them
meet their long-term needs.
Don Phillips, Morningstar |
Opinion
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Philosophy/Strategies
Commitment brings the best out of liquid alpha
It remains possible to generate alpha from liquid
strategies but investors must shift their focus away
from short-term performance, and towards longer-term
measurements of success.
Carol Geremia, MFS Asset Management |
Opinion
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China's rapid growth is unsustainable
Chinese data does have varying degrees of quality.
However, making informed investment decisions is
about more than just reliable data...
Sam Churchill, Magellan Financial Group
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Comment
26 years without a recession. Or six? Or maybe only
two?
One measure uses a Laspeyres index and the other a
Paasche index, the latter seen as more
representative given substitution bias as prices
change...
Alex Waschka, QSuper |
Comment
Laspeyres and the Paasche indices
Agree that there are different ways of measuring
these things - and they in fact measure slightly
different things. Conventional real GDP measures the
number of loaves, Betty's GDP the purchasing power
of those loaves. Which one is better?
Tim Farrelly,
farrelly's |
Comment
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