Allocating to resources, populism, investing on demographics and founders, & active success
Tim kicks off Fodder with an in-depth look at what allocation is warranted to resources in an Australian equities portfolio (less than the market cap). Dr Oliver Hartwich warns of the consequences of mainsteam politicians now resorting to populism ('if you can't beat them...'). Watch the top-10 rated Conference presentation by Fidelity International's Alva Devoy on demographic layering of equity investment decisions (and earn 0.50 CE hours). India Avenue Investments' Mugunthan Siva shows that companies led by founders are more likely to outperform. And finally, Epoch Investment Partners' Bill Priest explains the three key ingredients to his long (50+ years) successful active management track record.
All the best for a great weekend's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Mark your diary! Markets Summit 14 Feb 2017 & Finology Summit 15 Feb 2017 - the winds of change.

LATEST...

Markets/Strategies
How much should we have in resource stocks?
The Australian sharemarket’s high weight to resource stocks is an accident of history and geography. A lower than market cap weight to resource stocks in portfolios seems much more sensible.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Research

Markets
Wanted: A counter-populism strategy
The IMF is right to warn that populism poses a serious threat to the global economy. What is really worrying is It is no longer only populists of Donald Trump's ilk who are delivering it.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | Opinion

Markets/Investing
Demographics does not mean dull
Demographic trends give a solid basis from which to forecast beyond the usual two-year time horizon - and demographic layering of equity investment decisions can be a powerful structural growth tool as well as a strong risk mitigator.
Alva Devoy, Fidelity International | 0.50 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Conference 2016 delegates

Investing
Understanding "founder's mentality" to generate outperformance
Only 1 in 10 listed companies globally achieved sustainable, profitable growth over the decade. A disproportionate number had a founder still running the firm or who remains on the Board.
Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | Opinion

Investing
Active managers require three ingredients for success
Active fund groups with the right combination of culture, technology and philosophy enable investors to protect and grow their capital in a complex world.
Bill Priest, Epoch Investment Partners | Resources

Comment
Not sure I'm in the tent
If the goal of retirement is to live off most of your wealth and avoid wastage... aren't you restarting retiring every year and wanting to spend the most you can? Hence it's perhaps not a zone you're passing in and out of. 
Doug Turek, Professional Wealth | Comment

RECENTLY...

Philosophy/Finology
This is not the time to stop thinking
While parts of the asset management industry appear to be dumbing down, we must continue to educate individuals on the differences between investment and speculation.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | Resources

Markets
Forecasting US recessions - what works and what doesn't
Broad analysis of generally effective indicators of US recessions leads to the conclusion that recession risks in the US are clearly continuing to rise. A wide range of indicators confirm the message although some doubts remain.
Chris Watling, Longview Economics | Research

Strategies
Using a bond tent to navigate the retirement danger zone
Perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | 1 comment | Research

Strategies
Manager benchmarking is a pox on both investors and markets
It seems sensible to make investment managers accountable by requiring them to perform relative to a benchmark. But this kind of motivation has a perverse effect.
Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 0.50 CE | Resources
* Rated in the top 10 presentations by Conference 2016 delegates

Markets/Investing
Do you own enough global small caps?
A satellite allocation to global small caps can increase portfolio efficiency over the long term.
Lazard Asset Management | White Paper

Not their fault
Surely we can't blame central banks for the lack of fiscal stimulus?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | Comment

The failure to understand rebalancing
Of course, to rebalance to the same mix one must sell relative winners since last rebalancing and buy relative losers. In any case, I'm not saying there's something wrong with rebalancing...
Michael Edesess, EDHEC-Risk Institute | Comment

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