Should we pay attention to geopolitical issues when constructing portfolios? It's a question that elicits very firm views both for and against - and the advent of POTUS Trump only adds fuel to the debate. In our first Fodder for the year, Jonathan Pain makes the case that 2017 is a year politics really matters to investing, while Mohamed El-Erian is on the same wave length. Dr Bob Gay gives his unique insider's view of what will cause the US Fed to raise rates, when and by how much. Michael Kitces explains how to properly integrate two dimensions of risk profiling into portfolios (don't use a simplistic questionnaire!). Lastly, our own Will Jackson reports on the hot topics debated by the group of 10 senior fund analysts on our Research Roundtable International program.
All the best for another great year's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Join us for Summit 2017 - The winds of change (14 and/or 15 Feb) featuring Prof Niall Ferguson and 25 experts debating their the outlook for markets (14 Feb) and how we can better relate to investors (15 Feb). Attend either day or both!

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

"The best investor is a social scientist." - Michael Milken

LATEST...

Strategies/Markets
Does political analysis matter when investing?
Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Opinion

Markets
An unstable economic order?
The retreat of advanced economies from the global economy could have far-reaching consequences.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz | Opinion

Markets
The inevitability of tighter monetary conditions
The stage is set for an inevitable tightening in monetary conditions. The only questions are how soon, how much and with what consequences.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | Opinion

Strategies
A two-dimensional risk tolerance assessment process
Beware using risk tolerance assessment tools that blend risk tolerance and risk capacity into a single result. The two need to be measured separately.
Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group | White Paper

Investing
Research Roundtable International 2016 - key takeouts
Put 10 senior Australian fund analysts on an eight-day CE program to the west coast of the USA. Inevitably, the group debated their views on many issues.
Will Jackson, PortfolioConstruction Forum | Opinion

Bank hybrids are not equities
Tim, I agree that they are not equity like as they rarely have capital gains. However, they are riskier then a lot of defensive assets...
Steve Higgins | Comment

RECENTLY...

Markets/Strategies
Bank hybrids are not equities...
Another major licensee has reportedly fallen for the hybrid scare campaigns, insisting bank hybrids securities be treated as equities. The premise is hopelessly flawed.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 7 comments | Opinion

Markets
The winds of change - two chapters ahead
I think of two winds of change. The first is a fundamental change in the direction of global monetary policy. The second is technology. For now, though, we really need to think about the first.
Hamish Douglass, Magellan Financial Group | Opinion

Markets
Niall Ferguson - a busy year for historians
2016 was a bumper year for history. But actually, it's just history as normal, says historian Niall Ferguson. And neither the Trump election nor Brexit signals the end of globalisation.
Nathan Smith, National Business Review | Opinion

Strategies/Markets
Is swapping volatility risk for longevity risk the right strategy?
Given increasing longevity, it's important that retirees not ignore strategies that can generate long-term capital growth. In short, retirees need to re-examine the role of equities in their portfolio.
Mugunthan Siva, India Avenue Investment Management | Opinion

Strategies
No free lunch in investing - but are there free drinks?
When it comes to returns, it's true that there is no free lunch - for one person to win, another loses. But with risk, diversification offers "free drinks", albeit that the bar where these are served evolves over time because correlation is not static.
Thomas Poullaouec, State Street Global Advisors | Opinion

Pawspectives
The life and times of Schnitzel von Krumm
The Forum team recently said a sad goodbye to our beloved sausage dog, Schnitzel von Krumm. He was well known to those who attended our live programs or visited our office over the past decade. As a tribute, the team has put together this montage of a few memories.
Hannah Molyneux, PortfolioConstruction Forum | 2 comments | Montage

The relevance of the Ukraine to the Wehrmacht
When was Stalingrad in the Ukraine?
Robert Harrison | Comment

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