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Fodder kicks off with part 2 of Dr Woody Brock's
review of the three key risks facing investors -
this time, geopolitical risk, concluding that
although it is much higher than in the recent past,
the probability of war is paradoxically lower.
Nouriel Roubini agrees, but asks whether investors
are underestimating the potential of rising
geopolitical risk to trigger a black swan event.
PIMCO's Libby Cantrill explains why President Trump
is unlikely to be able to deliver any time this year
on his
ideas to reignite US economic growth.
Professor Ron Bird then reviews three recent papers
on factor investing (noting factor investing is
available to almost everyone). We end with Douglas
Isles's top 3-rated Finology Summit session on how
to help investors stay the course and not fall prey
to common behavourial pitfalls.
All the
best for another week's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Register now for PortfolioConstruction Forum
Masterclass NZ (22 June, Auckland)
- best suited to senior practitioners
in a discretionary role that includes secondary fund
research and building multi-manager, multi-asset
portfolios.
Register today! |
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... |
"Learn as if you were to live forever." Mahatma
Gandhi |
LATEST... |
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Woody-Brock_70x70.gif) |
Markets
The dramatic decline of risk - part 2 - geopolitical
risk
Despite increasing global political risk, the
probability of outright war is paradoxically lower
than it might have been at any previous period in
history.
Dr Woody Brock, SED
|
White Paper
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![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_NourielRoubini_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Whistling past the geopolitical graveyard
In the face of proliferating geopolitical risks,
global financial markets have reached new heights.
Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events,
the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but
extremely costly.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics |
Opinion
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Libby-Cantrill_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
A Trump slump?
Trump's election triggered a global stock market
upswing, on confidence that he would be able to
fulfill his pledge to reignite US economic growth.
But how much is Trump really likely to be able to
get done?
Libby Cantrill, PIMCO |
Opinion
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Ron-Bird_70x70.jpg) |
Investing
Research Review: Factor investing
Factor investing has its
foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs,
we now live in a world where the possibility of
factor investing is available to almost everyone.
Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.
Prof Ron Bird, UTS |
Review
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Douglas-Isles_70x70.jpg) |
Finology
Buy Low, Sell High sounds simple but clients need a
framework
Clients benefit from understanding the investment
journey. Having prepared responses to scenarios
improves the chance of success.
Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management | 0.25 CE |
2 comments |
Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Finology Summit 2017
delegates
|
![](/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_megaphone_70x70.gif) |
What stocks are yield-based but not heavily geared?
Yield is obviously just the proportion of profits
which a company chooses to return as dividends. In
general, the higher the proportion, the more a
company is likely to be sacrificing future growth...
Martin Conlon, Schroders
|
Comment
Are assets overvalued
Low interest rates will only cause over-valuation if
they are unnaturally low..
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
|
Comment
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RECENTLY... |
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Woody-Brock_70x70.gif) |
Markets
The dramatic decline of risk - part 1
In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is
important for investors to know where true risks lie
and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic
risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight
decades.
Dr Woody Brock, SED
|
White Paper
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Stephen-Roach_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
A world turned inside out
The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by
2018, the developing countries will have a greater
share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries
(41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.
Stephen Roach, Yale University |
Opinion
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Lacy-Hunt_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Fed tightening - past and present
In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles,
typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for
too long. The current tightening cycle will not end
any differently.
Lacy Hunt & Van Hoisington, Hoisington Investment
Management |
Opinion
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Tim-Macready_70x70.jpg) |
Strategies
Impact investing in the context of a diversified
portfolio
This paper presents evidence to suggest that an
allocation to impact investments can contribute
potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return
profile and low correlation with other asset
classes.
Tim Macready, CIMA® & Simba Marekera, Brightlight
Impact Advisory
| 0.50 CE
|
White Paper
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Tim-Farrelly_70x70.jpg) |
Finology
Focus investors on goals with
a retirement spending policy
A formal, written
spending policy can help investors focus on what's
really important - will they meet their goals?
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 0.25 CE
|
Resources
* Rated
in the top 3 presentations by Finology Summit 2017
delegates
|
![](/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_megaphone_70x70.gif) |
Overvalued Assets
Thanks Tim, that US analysis succinctly illustrates
that those assets are probably overpriced, as are
many other assets in Australia and globally...
Mark Hayden, Hayden Financial Services
|
Comment
Who
will buy assets redeemed by retirees to fund their
retirement?
...in
the developed world, retirement age needs to rise
over time, or savings rates must rise dramatically...
Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management
|
Comment
Housing and superannuation
With Australia's ridiculous Asset Test system,
compared to New Zealand's brilliant system, low
income people will eventually save up $350,000 in
their super and then buy a house, only to go on the
full aged pension...
Steve Blizard, Roxburgh Securities
|
Comment
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