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Fodder
starts with two very different perspectives on
interest rates. First, Tim Farrelly debunks
the myth that central banks are holding interest
rates at unnaturally low levels, arguing Central
Banks should be applauded. Then, Yale's
Stephen Roach argues that today's central banks are
even more impotent than they were in the 1930s.
Michael Kitces highlights a new research study that
debunks the belief that holding cash is something to
avoid - in fact, pushing investors to put all their
cash to work increases their financial stress. Rob
Arnott et al debunk the myth that there is a
correlation between stock returns and the political
party in power.
And, finally we feature the top-10 rated
presentation by Colonial First State Global Asset
Management's Stephen Halmarick at Markets Summit
2017 on Trump the game changer.
-
All the best
for another great week's continuing education -
Graham
P.S.
Registration is now open for PortfolioConstruction Forum
Strategies Conference 2017 (23-24 August) - It all
adds up! |
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... |
Human history becomes more and more a race between
education and catastrophe. -
H.G.
Wells |
LATEST... |
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Tim-Farrelly_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Interest rates are artificially low?
Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that
as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how
the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe
the world has changed.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |
More
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![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Stephen-Roach_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Another lesson from Japan
We ignore history at great peril. The latest
disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks
is really not a surprise after all.
Stephen Roach, Yale University |
More
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![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_MichaelKitces_70x70.gif) |
Strategies | Finology
Buying happiness and satisfaction with greater cash
reserves
The classic view of cash in the world of investing
is that it's something to minimise. But a recent
study found that we're just not content without a
healthy allocation to cash.
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View |
More
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Rob-Arnott_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Politics and stock returns
Analysis of five international stock markets shows no
correlation between stock returns and the political
party in power.
Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates |
More
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Stephen-Halmarick_70x70.jpg) |
Markets | Strategies
Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is
uncertainty
2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as
the winds of change sweep through the global economy
and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only
certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.
Stephen Halmarick, Colonial First State Global Asset
Management
|
More
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Are assets overvalued?
...Surely, if interest rates are low, it is because
future growth expectations are also low, begging the
question, why would you pay more for equities (a
growth asset) in such a low growth environment?
James Waggett, Waggett Wealth Advice
|
More
Does low growth mean low returns from growth assets?
Not
necessarily. Since the GFC, the Australian economy
has grown faster than that of the US but EPS have
grown much more slowly in Australia than in the
US...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
|
More
|
RECENTLY... |
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_NourielRoubini_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
The global recovery's downside risks
In the next year, a more robust and persistent
global recovery will depend largely on whether
policymakers avoid mistakes that could derail it.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics |
More
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Robert-Gay_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Capping QE
Fed officials must take the long view and hence tend
to believe they can engineer a graceful exit. Their
plan is somewhat akin to 'cap and trade' schemes for
weaning the world of pollutants.
Dr
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers |
More
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Joachim-Fels_70x70.jpg) |
Markets
Into the unknown: Ignore left tail risks at your
peril
The world has now fully arrived in the radically
uncertain, "stable but not secure" predicament. The
only certainty is that the tails of the distribution
of potential macro outcomes have become fatter.
Joachim Fels, PIMCO | 0.25 CE |
More
* Rated
in the top 10 presentations by Markets Summit 2017
delegates
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_Ron-Bird_70x70.jpg) |
Investing
Research Review: Quality and momentum investing
Unlike other commonly used factors, very little
research has been undertaken on the quality factor -
which makes a newly released paper very interesting.
Another new paper extends the usual momentum factor
into "returns signal momentum".
Prof Ron Bird, UTS | 1.00 CE |
More
|
![](https://portfolioconstruction.com.au/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_StephenAnness_70x70.jpg) |
Philosophy | Investing
Daring to be different - the benefits of contrarian
investing
Literature from a variety of disciplines help
highlight the qualities behind truly creative,
contrarian thinking - qualities which can be applied
to modern portfolio management.
Stephen Anness & Andy Hall, Invesco Perpetual
|
More
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![](/obj/thumbnails/pcf_tn_megaphone_70x70.gif) |
Are assets overvalued?
Hi
Tim Are interest rates unnaturally low? If I
represent the yes argument I then hypothesize that
economies (& employment) are “propped up” by these
rates...
Mark Hayden, Hayden Financial Services
|
More
Asset allocation critical
Asset
allocation is all about picking where the value lies
in the asset hierarchy...
Chris Farley, Farley Financial
|
More
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