This week in Fodder, Dr Woody Brock explains that the IT revolution of the past 20 years has driven unmeasured productivity growth and caused inflation and interest rates to fall, and predicts it has another 10 to 20 years to go, which is good news for investors. Yale's Stephen Roach warns that the US has more to lose than China in Trump's threatened trade conflict. We feature Michael Kitces's presentation on better ways to rebalance portfolios than the traditional time-based methods. Michael Edesess highlights three new research papers that point to possible problems in quant research on anomalies. And we finish with another take on exploiting anomalies by PM Capital's Paul Moore.
- All the best for another great week's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Are you involved in any aspect of constructing diversified, multi-manager portfolios? Stand for more with CIMA certification (more knowledge, more skill, more competence)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

The goal of education is the advancement of knowledge and the dissemination of truth. - John F Kennedy

LATEST...

Markets
The truth about the IT Revolution
Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | More

Markets
America and China's codependency trap
US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | More

Strategies
There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing
Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase.
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 1.00 CE | More

Investing
The trend that is ruining finance research
The "anomalies" literature is the scientific foundation for quantitative asset management. But as three recent papers point out, "p-hacking" is only the beginning of anomalies research problems.
Michael Edesess, EDHEC-Risk Institute | More

Strategies & Investing
Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns
To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.
Paul Moore, PM Capital | 0.50 CE | More

What about the cap on loyalty units?
...noting that there is a cap on subscriptions that can attract the loyalty units at 20,000 units or $30,000AU, I do wonder if the potential scope for 'gaming' the offer is as significant as you have proposed?
Carey Church, Moneyworks NZ | More

How the cap works
...there is a cap on larger amounts but it is based on 10% of your current investment not $30k (20k units). I still think that provides plenty of scope to participate in, or "game" the Offer, given its generosity.
Dominic McCormick | More

RECENTLY...

Strategies
Retirement spending and biological age
There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that chronological (C) age is dominated by biological (B) age as a better proxy for longevity risk. Practitioners must consider both ages when building portfolios and structuring retirement spending strategies.
Moshe Milevsky, York University | 1.00 CE | More

Strategies | Investing
Beating the world’s best investors
Where can practitioners take on the world’s best investors and win? Actually, in quite a lot of places.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | More

Investing
Magellan's "monster" listed trust - masterstroke or misfire?
Magellan is innovating again, this time raising money for what's been called a "monster" closed-end listed investment trust (LIT) with features that dramatically raise the bar for the standard model of closed end listed investment vehicles.
Dominic McCormick | 2 comments | More

Markets
The persistence of global imbalances
The US has run chronic current-account deficits for almost two generations. Pointing the finger at surplus countries is getting old.
Carmen M. Reinhart, Harvard University | More

Markets
Fed balance sheet fears are much ado about nothing
Investors should set aside their fears about the Fed shrinking its balance sheet, and remember that it provides little indication about what will happen to longer term interest rates.
Payden & Rygel | More

China's economic resilience
...China's growth may carry on for years yet, but feeding the beast on credit must surely be a recipe for reducing resilience, not increasing it.
James Weir, Steward Wealth | More

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