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Friday 22 September 2017

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification

This week, Fodder starts with the top-5 rated presentation from our recent Strategies Conference by global fiscal policy reform pioneer, the Hon. Ruth Richardson. Ruth explains why western politicians are failing to make the case for market liberalism. Nouriel Roubini gives his take on why inflation has not picked up, despite global growth accelerating. Dr Bob Gay argues that the Fed is only a little behind the curve. Tim Farrelly takes aim at the belief that Australian investors should reduce their Aussie equity holdings because the market is too concentrated by sectors and stocks. And we end with Professor Ron Bird reviewing two "colourful" recent investment research papers.
- All the best for another great week's continuing education - Graham
P.S. If you attended Strategies Conference live, your CE accreditation is now available in your MyCE record. (And if you didn't attend, you can still "attend" online and earn CE hours - go to


Education without values, as useful as it is, seems rather to make man a more clever devil - C. S. Lewis


Philosophy | Markets
Democratic politics & market economics are the axis of value
Public policy matters to performance at every level. Yet modern politics faces a crisis of ideas, relevance and trust. The trick is to let markets do their work.
Ruth Richardson, RRNZ | 0.50 CE |

The mystery of the missing inflation
Since mid 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, with the growth rate accelerating gradually. What has not picked up, at least in the advanced economies, is inflation. The question is why.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics |

Is the Fed behind the curve?
Many observers conclude that the Fed is behind the curve because a central bank supposedly should not persist with a negative real policy rate at full employment. That is correct - but the question remains "how much?"
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers |

The ASX200 is too concentrated - reduce weights!
Simply observing the concentration inherent in the index and reducing Australian Equity weights is throwing the proverbial baby out with the bathwater. It’s nuts and you can clearly see it’s nuts.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's |

Investing | Finology
Research Review: Red is bad, green is good
Two recent studies provide evidence that issues unrelated to the fundamental operation of a firm impact their market valuation.
Prof Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 1.00 CE | More

A few disagreements
...If we use those results to try and predict the future and it doesn't work out then it is not the method's fault but the interpreter's, because if its not clear by now that the past doesn't equal the future when it comes to performance...
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory
| More

...I have many times criticized the conclusions that finance research leaps to based on a misinterpretation of its mathematics, or shoddy mathematics, or misunderstanding of its own mathematics -- but never the mathematical methods themselves...
Michael Edesess, Compendium Finance & EDHEC-Risk Institute | More


The truth about the IT Revolution
Twenty years ago, I predicted that the Digital Revolution would cause productivity growth to accelerate and inflation and interest rates to fall for a very long period. We now believe this trend will continue for at least another 10 and probably 20 years.
Dr Woody Brock, SED | 1 comment |

America and China's codependency trap
US President Donald Trump has once again raised the possibility of a trade conflict with China. Getting tough on China while ignoring the consequences could be a blunder of epic proportions.
Stephen Roach, Yale University |

There are better alternatives to time-based rebalancing
Time-based rebalancing is inefficient. Research suggests that tolerance band rebalancing strategies minimise trading and boost portfolio returns in both the portfolio accumulation and decumulation phase.
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 1.00 CE |

The trend that is ruining finance research
The "anomalies" literature is the scientific foundation for quantitative asset management. But as three recent papers point out, "p-hacking" is only the beginning of anomalies research problems.
Michael Edesess, EDHEC-Risk Institute | 2 comments | More

Strategies | Investing
Exploiting anomalies is vital for higher long-term returns
To outperform the market you have to invest in something different. Investment returns are best captured through the exploitation of anomalies – the truly different mispriced opportunities.
Paul Moore, PM Capital | 0.50 CE |

What about the cap on loyalty units?
...noting that there is a cap on subscriptions that can attract the loyalty units at 20,000 units or $30,000AU, I do wonder if the potential scope for 'gaming' the offer is as significant as you have proposed?
Carey Church, Moneyworks NZ
| More

How the cap works
...there is a cap on larger amounts but it is based on 10% of your current investment not $30k (20k units). I still think that provides plenty of scope to participate in, or "game" the Offer, given its generosity.
Dominic McCormick | More


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