In Fodder this week, Tim Farrelly takes aim at the government's "If it is earned here it should be taxed here" ad. Gavekal's Anatole Kaletskey argues that equity markets are more likely to rise than fall from here. Prof Amin Rajan shares the results of his latest survey of the investment views of the world's largest pension funds - welcome back, long-term investing! Ellerston Capital's Tim Toohey argues that we'll see significantly faster wages growth in the US and Australia, hastening the end of the 30-year rally in bonds. And Pantheon's Brian Buenneke explains the portfolio construction implications of a shrinking global public equity market.
All the best for another great week's continuing education - Graham
P.S. Are you involved in any aspect of constructing multi-manager portfolios? Enrol now to undertake CIMA certification in 2018 - Stand for more (more knowledge, more skill, more expertise).

QUOTE OF THE WEEK...

Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self confidence - Robert Frost

LATEST...

Markets
Lies, damned lies and company taxes
"If it is earned here, it should be taxed here" is the title of the ad about laws on multinationals transferring profits offshore. What is interesting is the closing claim in the ad.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | More

Markets
Today's Rational Exuberance
It is tempting to ask whether markets have entered a period of "irrational exuberance" and are heading for a fall. The answer is probably no.
Anatole Kaletsky, Gavekal | More

Strategies
Back to long-term investing in the age of geopolitical risk
In the last decade, investor interest in long-horizon outcomes was rare and when it prevailed, it was severely tested by events. The long-term was viewed as opaque and uncertain. It’s amazing how attitudes change when new opportunities emerge.
Prof Amin Rajan, CREATE-Research | More

Markets
A generational transition for bond markets
The return of wage growth across the industralised world has significant implications for markets and central bank policy - and spells the end of the 30-year rally in bonds.
Tim Toohey, Ellerston Capital | More

Markets | Strategies
The shrinking of the public equity market matters
The number of publicly listed companies in the US has roughly halved since 1996, a phenomenon which spans other regions. The trend is likely to persist, and it has significant implications for investors.
Brian J. Buenneke & Alex Wilmerding, Pantheon Ventures | 0.25 CE | More

RECENTLY...

Philosophy - Strategies
Philosophy Lecture: Value investing
Value investing has been successful but it requires discipline and a long-run horizon - and disagreement remains over whether the value premium will persist. What's your philosophy?
Philipp Hofflin, Lazard Asset Management | 4.00 CE | More

Markets
China will be the dominant power in the region by 2027
Xi Jinping would like to oversee China's rise to regional dominance. However, the US, Japan and India will not allow China alone to dominate the region.
Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 0.25 CE | More

Markets
The abnormality of oil
There is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price of oil as high as $80 in the coming year.
Jim O'Neill | More

Philosophy - Ethics
Values, ethics and investing
Values play a vital role in investment and business decisions - and, increasingly, investors care about more than just financial returns.
Clare Payne, Charles Sampford, Jack Gray | 1.00 CE | More

Strategies
EM Infrastructure is too risky for defensive equity portfolios
Emerging markets infrastructure plays a powerful role in a portfolio. However many investors make assumptions around the risk of these markets and ignore them to their detriment.
Charles Hamieh, RARE Infrastructure | 0.50 CE | More

Markets
The curious case of the missing defaults
For the past two centuries, a "double bust" (in commodities and capital flows) has led to a spike in sovereign defaults. Yet they have risen only modestly since the peak in commodity prices and global capital flows around 2011.
Carmen M. Reinhart, Harvard University | More

Markets
Phillips Curve confusion
During the past three months, a salient topic of debate has been whether the so-called Phillips Curve is relevant in today's disinflationary environment. The debate is important to investors.
Woody Brock, SED | More

Markets | Finology
The Cocaine Brain and other biases
Human beings are subject to behavioural biases, which negatively affect their ability to make rational choices. These behavioural biases create market inefficiencies that active investment managers can exploit to generate alpha.
Stuart Rae, AllianceBernstein | More

Strategies | Investing
E + S + G factors all add up to better performance
Ensuring your investment process has the flexibility to incorporate sustainability factors all adds up to improved longer term portfolio performance outcomes.
Amanda McCluskey, Stewart Investors | 0.50 CE | More

Philosophy - Ethics
Research Review: Personal values and professionalism
What influence do personal values have on our behaviour, as individuals? And how do those values interact with professional standards and ethics?
Will Jackson, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | More

Good Summary
...Framing the household balance sheet as a consideration of 'possibilities' is interesting. Taking today's balance sheet and examining it against future liabilities, specifically the probability of satisfying each liability is the least practiced element of retirement planning...
Brent Bevan, Commonwealth Bank of Australia | More

China madernity??
What a load of codswallop!!!
Craig Offenhauser, Charter Pacific Securities | More

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