Forum Fodder 27 April 2018

Forum Fodder

Portfolio Construction Forum

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Friday 27 April 2018

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification

	Forum Fodder \| Friday 27 April 2018 "I am learning all the time. The tombstone will be my diploma." - Eartha Kitt All the best for another week's continuing education! - Graham
UPCOMING LIVE CE...
	Philosophy \| Markets \| Strategies \| Investing \| Finology Strategies Conference 2018 - "Future-proof portfolios?" Portfolio construction is an exercise in long-term thinking, seeking to meet investors' distant goals. Strategies Conference 2018 will facilitate debate on a selection of contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, with particular emphasis on designing future-proof portfolios. MARK YOUR DIARY! 22-23 August 2018
LATEST ONLINE CE...
	Markets \| Strategies Markets aren't pricing rates to revert to the old normal That's the view that the RBA's Guy Debelle outlined recently. It's a timely warning - but what do we do with it? I think it depends on your investment time horizon, as do so many investment decisions. Tim Farrelly, farrelly's \| More
	Markets \| Strategies Policy blunders and currencies Nearly all recent initiatives of the Trump administration will prove to be macroeconomic blunders. The time has come to upgrade the credit quality of investment portfolios. Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers \| 0.50 CE \| More
	Strategies The misunderstanding of life expectancies As we consider the life expectancy of many clients, we should not be using any number in the 80s. A figure closer to 95 is both more realistic and provides a little buffer in case the individual lives longer than the average. David Knox, Mercer \| More
	Markets Stay focused, ignore the noise Fears of a US-China trade war contributed to recent stock market volatility. Practitioners must look beyond the market noise and focus on the medium-term outlook. Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital \| More
	Investing \| Philosophy Risk mismatch the biggest mistake Only by understanding two factors can practitioners mitigate the risk of permanent loss of capital in emerging market companies. Alex Duffy, Fidelity International \| More
	Retirement spending While the broad brush data is interesting, individuals vary widely. Age is also a questionable basis for applying this information... David Williams, My Longevity \| More HILDA data is not just a broad brush I agree that individual households vary widely. This is why I used the HILDA data to track them over time. The HILDA data does show that different retirees have different patterns, and it clearly won't be just due to age... Aaron Minney, Challenger \| More Is diversification such a good idea? ... when judged on the basis of the return/risk trade-off, diversification quickly becomes a lot less attractive when implemented by active investors... Professor Ron Bird, UTS \| More
RECENT ONLINE CE...
	Markets The global trade game The US/China trade confrontation is heating up as market analysts scramble to figure out what will come next. History is likely to be a poor guide. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz \| More
	Philosophy \| Markets Sustainability is crucial to infrastructure returns Infrastructure assets have large environmental footprints. Incorporating ESG factors into the infrastructure investment process can improve risk-adjusted returns. Rebecca Sherlock, Colonial First State Global Asset Management \| More
	Markets \| Investing Disruptive technologies will revolutionise healthcare Genomic medicine will radically change how diseases are diagnosed and treated. Healthcare valuations don't currently reflect long-term opportunities in the sector. Bianca Ogden, Platinum Asset Management \| More
	Strategies \| Finology Understanding how people spend their money in retirement A retiree's spending profile changes over time. Assuming a constant level spending is like ignoring the topography of a map. Aaron Minney, Challenger \| More
	Investing Research Review: Performance, fees and active managers Recent research reviews the performance of active bond managers, and the impact of performance fees on returns of active equity funds and then for private equity funds. Professor Ron Bird, UTS \| 1.00 CE \| More
	Not bonds? It would be hard to argue with Professor Shiller, however a couple questions come to mind after a cursory read. Is this a bond? It sounds more like an equity investment, rising in value in good times and falling in bad times... Doug Turek, Professional Wealth \| More
	Markets \| Investing Making the case for sovereign GDP-linked bonds The time has come for national governments around the world to start issuing their debt in a new form, linked to their countries' resources. Robert J. Shiller, Yale University \| More
	Markets Things (in the economics world) are broken The history of the international monetary order is a history of change, occurring on average every 40 years. This current system is, therefore, long in the tooth. Chris Watling, Longview Economics \| 0.50 CE \| More
	Strategies Revisiting the importance of investment returns in retirement About 30 years ago, Don Ezra identified the 10/30/60 rule for what drives retirement income. Does this rule still apply in Australia? David Knox, Mercer \| More
	Finology Downsize now and rejoice at leisure. Government incentives may help to encourage downsizing but the decision itself may not be purely financial as recent research reveals. Joanne Earl, Macquarie University \| 0.50 CE \| More
	Markets Small caps are thriving in the global upswing Smaller companies are benefitting from robust economic growth, low base rates and balance sheet flexibility. Investors should focus on Japan and Europe. Ed Rosenfeld, Lazard Asset Management \| More
	True diversification is key Well written, Michael - we are often attempting to help advisers understand the importance of combining lowly correlated assets (that have positive long-term drift) to achieve more robust portfolio outcomes... Andrew Fairweather, Winston Capital Partners \| More
	Finology Behavioural biases lead to unrecognised risk-taking Behavioural biases - substitution, aggregation, and feedback risks, overconfidence, and limited attention and availability bias - distort money managers' perceptions and lead them to take risks they don’t see. Terrance Odean, University of California, Berkeley \| 0.50 CE \| More
	Markets Economists vs scientists on long-term growth Neither policymakers nor markets should be betting on the slow growth of the past decade carrying over to the next. The best bet is that AI and other new technologies will eventually come to have a much larger impact on growth than they have up to now. Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University \| More
	Philosophy \| Strategies \| Investing Diversification - what it is and is not The concept of diversification may seem to be second nature. However, some of its fundamentals are often misused and sometimes misrepresented. Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory \| 1 comment \| More
	Markets \| Investing Investors need growth equities as change accelerates Structural change and the resulting earnings growth will always outrun interest rates in the long run, so as change continues to accelerate, investors need growth equities in their portfolio. Nick Griffin, Munro Partners \| 0.50 CE \| More
	Markets Latest US stimulus is a red flag There is now a 50% chance that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates more sharply than markets expect, leading to a recession in the next one to two years. Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital \| More
	Efficiency argument misses some important elements The characterisation of blockchain as being about technological efficiency is not a sufficient way to think about it... Julian McCormack, Platinum Asset Management \| More Crypto... I'd love to know how the 33.3% intend to do that??? Glynn Phillips, Falconer Advisers \| More
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