Forum Fodder | Friday 01 June 2018
"It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers." - James Thurber
All the best for another week's continuing education!
- Graham

UPCOMING LIVE CE...

Philosophy | Markets | Strategies | Investing | Finology
Strategies Conference 2018 - "Future-proof portfolios?"
Portfolio construction is an exercise in long-term thinking, seeking to meet investors' distant goals. Strategies Conference 2018 will facilitate debate on a selection of contemporary and emerging portfolio construction strategies, with particular emphasis on designing future-proof portfolios.
MARK YOUR DIARY! 22-23 August 2018

LATEST ONLINE CE...

Markets
The old allure of new money
There are now nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies, and millions of people worldwide are excited by them. As with past monetary innovations, a compelling story may not be enough.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University | More

Strategies | Investing
Will longevity products now become attractive?
New means test rules for pooled lifetime income products, together with development of Comprehensive Income Products for Retirement (CIPRs), have the potential to radically alter Australians' views about retirement income products.
David Knox, Mercer | More

Finology
Successful practitioners are caring practitioners
"Nobody cares how much you know, until they know how much you care,” cautioned Theodore Roosevelt. This is especially true when risk is involved.
Herman Brodie, Prospecta Limited | 0.25 CE | More

Markets | Strategies
Cash is the alternative asset class
Many asset classes - such as real estate and infrastructure - face the same valuation headwinds as equities and bonds. Practitioners should consider using cash as the diversifier for multi-asset portfolios.
Sonja Laud, Fidelity International | More

Markets | Strategies
Markets creak as yields creep higher
Calm returned to global stock markets in May. But investors should not be lulled into a false sense of security. Equities and bonds face considerable headwinds as the Fed continues to tighten. This is not the time to be invested in overpriced assets.
Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital | More

RECENT ONLINE CE...

Markets
Donald Trump’s Normal Fed
In a presidency that's shown little regard for conventional institutional norms, how can one explain Donald Trump's completely reasonable appointments to the Federal Reserve Board?
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | More

Strategies | Investing
Research Review: More on momentum investing
Eugene Fama described momentum investing as the one remaining market anomaly. A recent paper gives an explanation for it. Another shows it still offers high profits after costs.
Ron Bird, UTS | 1.00 CE | More

Markets | Investing
Do stocks outperform Treasury bills?
It is generally accepted that stocks provide long-term outperformance over cash. However, a recent academic research paper reveals this is not the case for the majority of stocks since 1926.
Nick Griffin, Munro Partners | 1.00 CE | More

Strategies | Finology
The difference for advice in retirement
Many baby boomers are now retiring with decent super balances and need advice on how to manage (spend) their retirement savings appropriately.
Aaron Minney, Challenger | More

Finology
Robo-advisors are NOT the future (but technology is)
Robo-advisors have been the big buzz as replacement humans, but they’re not (and data proves it). Technology alone is not enough (or everyone with a FitBit on their wrist would be healthy).
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View | 0.50 CE | More

Markets
The true impact of a trade war
President Trump's protectionist threats have raised the risks of a serious trade war, the first in over 80 years. It is assumed that this would materially impact US growth - but is that the case?
Woody Brock, SED | More

Markets
Is realism trumping populism?
Around the world, populist economic policy appears to be in retreat. Even in Britain, a clear majority support a vote on whether the deal with Europe is genuinely better than remaining in the EU.
Anatole Kaletsky, Gavekal | More

Markets
Bill Phillips: the man, the myth, the Curve
In recent years, a consensus view emerged that the Phillips Curve is dead. Not so. To understand, you need to know the history of the model and the Kiwi behind it.
Economics Team, Payden & Rygel | More

Strategies | Investing
From asset allocation to risk allocation
Asset allocation is often regarded as the most important portfolio decision, with asset classes then populated by investments. But this two-step approach can result in a mismatch.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | More

Strategies
The place of bonds in a low yield world
Investors are questioning the continued relevance of bonds in their portfolios. But bonds offer enhanced diversification in times of low growth, low inflation and market uncertainty.
Dean Stewart, Macquarie Investment Management | 0.75 CE | More

It's about what we DON'T know.
I only disagree to the extent that I know that we can't make assumptions about much at all AND that it's our clients' assumptions and views that matter...
Philip Carman, Personal Asset Service | More

We don't know the future
I agree that we don't know the future; indeed there are many uncertainties. The major point of this paper was to highlight the importance of investment returns after retirement, notwithstanding these uncertainties...
David Knox, Mercer | More

Thanks Ron (& Andrew)
... which brings us to assessing "skill"; and the many challenges and behavioural biases in so many of us thinking we have it, or can identify it.
Michael Furey, Delta Research & Advisory | More

Markets | Strategies
Markets aren't pricing rates to revert to the old normal
That's the view that the RBA's Guy Debelle outlined recently. It's a timely warning - but what do we do with it? I think it depends on your investment time horizon, as do so many investment decisions.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | More

Markets | Strategies
Policy blunders and currencies
Nearly all recent initiatives of the Trump administration will prove to be macroeconomic blunders. The time has come to upgrade the credit quality of investment portfolios.
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers | 0.50 CE | More

Strategies
The misunderstanding of life expectancies
As we consider the life expectancy of many clients, we should not be using any number in the 80s. A figure closer to 95 is both more realistic and provides a little buffer in case the individual lives longer than the average.
David Knox, Mercer | More

Markets
Stay focused, ignore the noise
Fears of a US-China trade war contributed to recent stock market volatility. Practitioners must look beyond the market noise and focus on the medium-term outlook.
Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital | More

Investing | Philosophy
Risk mismatch the biggest mistake
Only by understanding two factors can practitioners mitigate the risk of permanent loss of capital in emerging market companies.
Alex Duffy, Fidelity International | More

Retirement spending
While the broad brush data is interesting, individuals vary widely. Age is also a questionable basis for applying this information...
David Williams, My Longevity | More

HILDA data is not just a broad brush
I agree that individual households vary widely. This is why I used the HILDA data to track them over time. The HILDA data does show that different retirees have different patterns, and it clearly won't be just due to age...
Aaron Minney, Challenger | More

Is diversification such a good idea?
... when judged on the basis of the return/risk trade-off, diversification quickly becomes a lot less attractive when implemented by active investors...
Professor Ron Bird, UTS | More

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