Forum Fodder

Portfolio Construction Forum | 06 May 2022

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The Portfolio Construction Forum team



Forum Fodder | Friday 06 May 2022

“I don’t think we ever had anything quite like we have now in terms of the volumes of pure gambling activity going on daily.” - Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman, Charlie Munger (30 April 2022)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
P.S. Mark your Diary!
- Inv Mgmt Research College Research Symposium | AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 03 Jun
- Finology College Finology Masterclass | AEST 10am-12.30pm Fri 15 Jul
- Portfolio Construction Forum Strategies Conference | AEST Wed 17 & Thu 18 Aug



The growing threat of global recession
The risks of a global recession trifecta are rising by the day. I am not sure politicians and policymakers are up to the task they may soon confront.
Professor Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read


Spotlight on gold
Gold has fascinated investors and analysts for decades. But it is a poor hedge against inflation over meaningful time horizons, and it is close to its highest real price in 800 years.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Philosophy | Strategies

The case for and against moving beyond the 60/40 portfolio
For many decades, the default investment portfolio was a 60/40 split – this was seen as the ideal blend of growth and defensive investments for most investors most of the time. Will it continue to deliver in a high inflation, high interest rate environment?
Tony Davidow, Davidow Consulting & Sue Dahn, Pitcher Partners | 0.50 CE | Read

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

PE to outperform in 2022 and most of you will miss out
Although traditional barriers to participation in PE are fading, PE remains on the bench for many individual investors. With an end to easy value creation and challenging conditions ahead, don’t miss out on PE outperformance in 2022.
Martin Cox, Milford Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations
The next decade of decarbonisation is the decade of opportunity to de-risk portfolios and identify green investments. Climate change risk factors are changing asset valuations. Key to success is the need for portfolios to account for climate change risk or risk being obsolete.
Michael Salvatico, S&P Global Sustainable 1 | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Philosophy | Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

The gift of foolishness
Sometimes all it takes to make someone feel connected is to be a fool, and I am often happy to unintentionally oblige.
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment



The other side of the mountain - Protecting capital in a new economic regime
AEST 4.30pm-5.15pm, Tue 17 May 2022
Economic conditions of the last few decades have supported a long ascent in the majority of asset prices. Investors must now confront conditions alien to most, potentially leading to a more painful descent. In this webinar, Ruffer’s economist, Jamie Dannhauser will discuss the apparent “Sophie’s choice” facing central banks – recession or stagflation – and how the economy is evolving in the midst of renewed geopolitical crises. The other side of the market mountain is fraught with risk and prone to avalanches. As we pass the peak in asset prices, we’ll consider how investors can prepare portfolios for the descent.
Ruffer | 0.75 CE | Register now!



Downside risks to global growth
The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. The revision by the IMF, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one…
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Now may be the time to consider CRE debt
Record low interest rates have fundamentally changed the playbook for income investors. With banks withdrawing from the CRE debt market, other lenders have greater opportunity.
Nick Bullick, Qualitas | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The odds aren’t favouring froth
Inflection points in inflation, interest rates and the large-scale monetary distortion of recent decades suggest the future will not repeat the same playbook as recent decades.
Martin Conlon, Schroders | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Rising rates will bring back discipline to market valuations
Rising interest rates will create casualties and collateral damage in asset prices, but will bring back market discipline, requiring a rethink of what “defensive” even means.
Richard Quin, Bentham Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Growth managers that lack energy may be left out in the cold
Investors shouldn’t overlook the potential benefits of focusing on companies in the energy sector. It looks like what’s “old” will be “new” again.
Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen


The end of an economic illusion
Inflation’s return marks a tipping point. A lot of wishful thinking will have to be abandoned, starting with the idea that governments can borrow or print as much money as they need to spray at every problem.
John Cochrane, Hoover Institution | Read


Spotlight on crypto-currencies
Despite astonishingly good returns during their limited history, there are just too many uncertainties around crypto-currencies to consider them an investable asset.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read


Inflation volatility is the biggest challenge investors face
A new market regime demands a change to the art of portfolio construction. The return of inflation volatility represents the most challenging and significant paradigm shift in decades.
Alex Lennard, Ruffer | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

Climate change requires offence and defence, just not now
In achieving longer term objectives, climate change demands both a defensive strategy to mitigate longer term risks and an offensive, tactical, approach to capitalising on opportunities.
Tom King, Nanuk Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2022

The key risks to markets are hiding in plain sight
Many expect that the end of the pandemic, reopening of economies, tight labour markets and excess consumer savings will push markets higher. Proceed with caution, the best offence is a great defence.
Arvid Streimann, Magellan Financial Group | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen


Forum CE Library - over 660 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 660 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 125 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours


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We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter, I’d welcome you connecting. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.