Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 15 December 2023

“We’re aware of the risk that we would hang on [to restrictive monetary policy] too long. We know that’s a risk and we’re very focused on not making that mistake. - US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell (13 December 2023)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

Markets Summit 2024 “History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!”
AEDT 8.30am-5.45pm Wednesday 21 February 2024
When it comes to what’s driving investment markets today, parallels are often drawn with prior eras. Some commentators liken today to the 1910s when geopolitical tensions curtailed globalisation and led to WW1. Others point to sticky inflation and “hot fronts” in a Cold War between democracies and autocracies as signs that the current environment is closer to that of the 1970s. Neither is a perfect analogy. Relative to the USSR in its heyday, today China arguably poses a greater challenge to the US-led order, given China’s extensive global economic entanglement and its progress in building an anti-western coalition. And current supply chain complexity, public and private debt, and advancements in artificial intelligence are all unprecedented.
Those who ignore the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them. By distinguishing helpful precedents from false echoes, we can better understand what lies ahead for economies and therefore investment markets, and reorientate portfolios accordingly. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes!
Markets Summit 2024 will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help them build better quality investor portfolios.
Live studio, live site, or live stream | 7+ CE | Register now!

Markets

The growing risk of global disorder
The Western-led global economic order has had a bad 2023. Surprisingly, the primary cause was not the emergence of an alternative order led by China, as some had anticipated.
Mohamed El-Erian | Read

Strategies | Philosophy | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, embrace scenario planning
The primary criticism directed at those who think about the future is that it’s an act of futility. But thinking about how the future may unfold has proven to be a useful way to make decisions amidst radical uncertainty.
Vikram Mansharamani, Visting Fellow | 0.25 CE | Read, Listen, Watch

Finology | Philosophy

On The Hunt: Ethical behaviour profiling
On the Hunt is a monthly lecture series focused on the human factors in investment portfolio construction, including the ethical implications. It will help you better identify and understand how investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Katherine Hunt, Ardentura Consulting | 1.00 CE (Ethics) | Read, Watch

Markets

Investing and prospering in a new economic regime - it really IS different this time
At this year’s FAAA Congress, we asked an expert panel about the implications of a VUCA investment climate for the construction of multi-asset, multi-manager portfolios and for investment conversations with clients.
Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Markets | Philosophy

Q&A: Outperforming markets given history rhymes not repeats
The fact that structural changes do exist and that historical data are often of limited relevance presents a major opportunity for investors seeking to outperform others.
Woody Brock, SED | Listen, Watch

Markets

Thinking Differently: Solving the puzzle
Very thought provoking… This article has prompted me to further research balance sheets and accumulated wealth.
Mark Hayden, Hayden Bourne Financial Services | Read

Finology | Philosophy

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, the Behavioural Finance - Investment Decision-Making course will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE | Enrol

Markets

Higher interest rates are here to stay
It is past time to revisit the widely prevailing “free lunch” view of government debt. With a few notable exceptions, those who championed the notion have not acknowledged the likelihood of a new reality.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Investing

Crockpot: A picture paints a thousand words
Different ways of presenting an identical set of data lead to very different insights into a fund’s performance. Using an arithmetic graph is by far the easiest to understand - and it can also be the most deceptive.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly’s Investment Strategy | Read

Markets

Thinking Differently: Solving the puzzle
In the wake of the most rapid and material rise in global interest rates for 50 years, we could be forgiven for scratching our heads at what has happened over 2023. Has monetary policy lost its mojo? Or has 2023 been a “head fake”?
Wayne Fitzgibbon, CAS Market Insights | Read

Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

If you do anything, tap into the Au small cap alpha opportunity
Small Caps have underperformed large cap peers in recent times however cyclical factors today and a rebound in domestic risk sets up for the reemergence in Australian Smalls.
David Aylward, Tribeca Investment Partners | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Investing | Finology

Research Review: Investor warm glow optimisation
This paper provides a penetrating view into some of the motivational dynamics in play for individual investors who select sustainability-related investments, and implications for financial intermediaries who manufacture and sell such products.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Read

Investing | Philosophy

Research Review: A closer look at value investing
Less efficient information markets in the past facilitated scope to identify mis-valued stocks that enabled return outperformance…
Mark Brennan, World Bank Group | Read

Markets

The economic consequences of the Gaza war
Hamas’s barbaric massacre of Israelis on 7 October and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza to eradicate the group, has introduced four geopolitical scenarios bearing on the global economy and markets.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Markets | Investing

The best energy transition plays may seem counterintuitive
When seeking exposure to the energy transition, investors typically think of wind and solar farms, and hydrogen and battery production. But the best risk/reward energy transition opportunities can be found elsewhere.
Brian Arcese, Foord Asset Management | Read, Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Add growth to portfolios with global small caps
Global small caps may be rewarded by the markets going forward supported by faster expected earnings growth and compelling valuations relative to large cap equities.
Trevor Gurwich, American Century Investments | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Infrastructure is the essential ingredient in any portfolio
Every day, every one of us is touched by infrastructure and, the longer we live, the more billions of us there are, and the more we need infrastructure. Demand for essential infrastructure offers opportunities for investors.
Michael Bessell, Dexus | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Strategies | As seen at Strategies Conference 2023

Multi-asset portfolios must focus on risk AND return outcomes
As professionals we need to stand with our clients and share our voice to ensure risk-aware approaches part of our investment landscape.
Anthony Golowenko, MLC Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Listen, Watch

Forum CE Library - over 800 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 800 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20+ governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU), FAAA, FMA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name just a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 150 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU), FAAA, FMA etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

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We let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.