Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 27 March 2026

“Coming on top of the ongoing Ukraine and tariff wars, the Iran war is shaping up as the biggest stagflationary shock the world has seen in five decades.” - Professor Kenneth Rogoff (26 March 2026)

All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

America’s war, America’s recession
There is no good time for an economy to face an energy- and food-price shock, but some moments are worse than others. And for the US today – now is about as bad as it gets.
Desmond Lachman, American Enterprise Institute | Read

Markets

We’ve just experienced the mother of all stagflationary shocks
As the conduit for a fifth of daily crude oil and LNG supply, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the most serious global energy shock in history. For Australia, the implications are particularly severe.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

Global private credit is tailor-made for a whole new world
As demand for private credit has grown over the past five years, so too has the availability of offerings such as the US Business Development Companies (BDCs). The current balance of risks tilts toward a favourable risk/return profile.
Ji He, Muzinich & Co | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Review: The rise of AI in investment
AI has emerged as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century, offering remarkable capabilities in data processing, pattern recognition, and automation. This paper provides a useful discussion of the use of AI by investment funds.
Ron Bird, Australian National University | 1.00 CE | Read

Strategies | Markets

Market Signals:  Structural shift emerging
The shift this week is subtle, but important. Markets are beginning to transition from a world where policy drives outcomes, to a world where physical constraints and geopolitical realities drive outcomes. The distinction matters.
Nick Schoenmaker, Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.25 CE | Read

Markets

What is the gold price telling us?
Jim’s framing captures the tension perfectly: gold can look like a bubble and a structural signal at the same time - and the distinction matters enormously for portfolio construction.
Nick Schoenmaker, Portfolio Construction Forum | Read

Strategies | Markets

Thinking Differently About Markets
Embracing complexity economics to better understand how markets really work
The Thinking Differently About Markets subscription service enables a deeper and more realistic understanding of economic and financial dynamics, empowering greater clarity and agility in portfolio construction.
Subscribe and join a Community of Practice that recognises that the traditional tools and theories of economic orthodoxy are not sufficient, and embraces complexity economics - in which the economy is more akin to an ecosystem, the brain, or the internet than to the mechanistic models of traditional theory.
Thinking Differently About Markets will help you create robust portfolios by deepening your understanding of how economies and markets really work. Find out more!

Strategies

Portfolio Compass
An efficient, effective tool to better connect portfolios to client objectives
Portfolio Compass enables you to easily and confidently identify robust asset allocations that can deliver on required investment objectives. Developed in association with Evergreen Consultants, you can rapidly analyse the risk and return characteristics of a portfolio’s existing asset allocation and analyse options to adjust it, create and monitor customised asset allocations for individual clients, and set practice-wide asset allocations based on your firm’s investment philosophy and client risk profiles. The highly visual interface enhances transparency and clarity of communication with clients about their portfolios.
Portfolio Compass will deepen your understanding and control of the most important part of the investment process – the asset allocation of a portfolio. Find out more!

Strategies | Markets | Investing | Philosophy

Short Course: Mastering private debt investing
Examining the unique characteristics that make private debt a compelling investment.
Private debt has grown in popularity as an alternative source of debt financing, with the asset class tripling in size since 2008. Curated and produced by Portfolio Construction Forum, and led by private debt investing subject matter expert, Andrew Lockhart, this self-paced, two-hour online short course equips you with the expertise to navigate private debt investment confidently across diverse market conditions.
Metrics & Portfolio Construction Forum | 2.00 CE | Enrol

Finology | Philosophy | * Premium *

Behavioural Finance: Investment decision-making short course
Led by behavioural finance expert, Herman Brodie, this online, on-demand course completed at your own pace will help you identify, analyse and evaluate the principal human preferences that influence decision-making in situations of uncertainty, so you can recognise and identify these preferences in others, to improve investment decision-making.
Herman Brodie | 8.00 CE (incl 1.00 ethics) | Enrol

Markets | Investing

Should central banks hold Bitcoin reserves?
Following US President Trump ordering a strategic Bitcoin reserve be established, private companies, investment banks, and scholars have begun urging major central banks to do the same. The idea is not quite as far-fetched as it may seem.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

We are living in a whole new world of radical disruption
We are living in an age of exponential change and radical uncertainty. We must prepare ourselves (and our portfolios) for the seismic societal and economic shocks that are hurtling our way.
Jonathan Pain, The Pain Report | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

It’s a whole new world of geoeconomics influences
This session explored two perspectives on the drivers of and outlook for Australian and global fixed income - The RBA’s lower speed limit means lower interest rates, not higher; and, Unconscious and concentrated, it’s no time to be passive.
Adam Bowe, PIMCO & Brett Lewthwaite, Macquarie Asset Management | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology | Philosophy |

Research Review: Investment advice under oath
Historically a feature of the medical and legal professions, oaths have become increasingly popular in promoting ethical practice in other occupations. The effectiveness in the financial advice context is the focus of this research paper.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE (Ethics) | Read

Strategies | Markets

Market Signals: Hormuz shock & stagflation risk
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has forced markets to confront how dependent the global economy remains on physical infrastructure - shipping lanes, energy flows, and industrial supply chains. Yet equity indices have remained relatively resilient, suggesting investors still assume the disruption will prove temporary.
Nick Schoenmaker, Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.25 CE | Read

Markets

Kevin Warsh is in for a rude awakening
Fortunately, the Fed chair is not an absolute monarch. Warsh will have only one vote out of 12 on the FOMC. That is good news for markets, given how misguided some of his stated positions are.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | Read

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

Investors must adapt to a more tribal less rational world
For decades, investors relied on a stable, predictable world. Today, that world is being mugged by reality. Portfolios must focus on places where the rule of law still matters and identify the strategic bottlenecks that now pick the winners and losers.
Oliver Hartwich, The New Zealand Initiative | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

It’s a whole new world
2025 was likely the beginning of the end of US exceptionalism in markets. It’s a whole new world (again)! – but many portfolios are positioned for the past based on an incomplete assessment of risk and reward.
Ronald Temple, Lazard | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2026

Get Real – we must wake up to the whole new world
Real assets, including direct lending, core real estate, and infrastructure, can help improve overall portfolio efficiency by offering positive returns during periods of economic contraction and high inflation.
Michael Meehan, Nuveen | 0.25 CE | Watch, Listen

Strategies | Markets

Market Signals:  Energy Shock and Stagflation Risk
Markets spent the week attempting to price a geopolitical shock whose macro consequences remain highly uncertain. The challenge is not predicting how the conflict evolves. It is recognising how shocks like this propagate through portfolios.
Nick Schoenmaker, Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.25 CE | Read

Forum CE Library - over 1,000 CE/CPD hours
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 800 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20+ governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU)/FAAA, FMA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name just a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 170 CE hours
This subset of our full CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, Legislated (AU)/FAAA, FMA etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

Connect with us on LinkedIn
We let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.