Markets are no longer dealing with a geopolitical shock in the abstract. They are increasingly confronting what happens when disruption starts to encounter the physical, financial and institutional limits of the system. That distinction matters.

A market can absorb volatility for a long time. It can absorb headlines, short-term oil spikes, and contradictory policy signals. What is harder to absorb is a shift from price disruption to actual constraint - constraint in shipping, in inventory, in policy flexibility, in the reliability of hedges, in the willingness ...