Relief rallies are building on fragile foundations while geopolitics, energy, and market functioning are diverging from the surface narrative.

Markets appear to be stabilising. The S&P 500 has effectively round-tripped the geopolitical shock and is now sitting close to pre-conflict levels. Volatility has eased back toward ~20 on the VIX, and risk assets have staged a strong relief rally with multiple sessions of consecutive gains.

But, beneath the surface, the signals are not aligned with that narrative. What markets are pricing looks like stabilisation. ...