RBA’s lower speed limit means lower interest rates, not higher

Adam Bowe  |  PIMCO  |  25 February 2026  |  0.25 CE

The Reserve Bank of Australia began 2025 with the first rate cut of the cycle and opened 2026 hiking them. It really is a whole new world! The rationale has changed, too. Through 2025, the RBA downgraded its expectations of potential growth in Australia, or the “speed limit” that the economy can grow at without creating inflation pressure. But as the RBA hikes rates to curb inflation due to a lower speed limit, should investors ultimately be expecting lower bond yields or higher bond yields? While the RBA may be starting 2026 responding to cyclical inflation pressures, t...

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