The most important market signal this week was not simply that oil fell, equities rallied, or the Federal Reserve surprised investors with a more hawkish tone. It was that markets again showed how quickly they are willing to move past geopolitical risk when the AI capital cycle remains intact.

The week began with markets pricing a peace dividend from the interim US-Iran agreement and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell back below US$80 per barrel, WTI moved into the low-to-mid US$70s, and oil declined by around 9%...