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Portfolio Construction Forum

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Friday 27 April 201

8Specialist, independent, investment
continuing education, accreditation & certification

Forum Fodder | Friday 01 February 2019
The learning and knowledge that we have, is, at the most, but little compared with that of which we are ignorant. - Plato
All the best for another week's continuing education! 
- Graham


Risks to the global economy in 2019
Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change.
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University |

The volatility of profit margins
Cyclical volatility in earnings has increased dramatically since the 1980s. The recent Apple profit warning is an excellent case in point.
Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers |

Is 2019 the year the bubble bursts?
We see three scenarios for 2019 - is it a benign outlook like 2016? A bubble bursting like 2000? Or will inflation accelerate?
Brett Gillespie, Ellerston Capital |

Cyber conflict is a threat (to future-proof portfolios)
Cyber weapons were initially used for espionage, but are increasingly deployed by governments in order to expand their global power. Portfolio construction practitioners should consider the threat such weapons pose to markets and investments.
David Sanger & Linda Jakobson | 1.00 CE |

Managing currency exposures
Australian investors have a different perspective on foreign currency to investors elsewhere in the world, and this should be reflected in how local portfolios are built.
State Street Global Advisors | 1.00 CE |

Markets Summit 2019 - The heat is on!
Tue 19 Feb 2019 | 7.5 to 11.5 CE hrs
A decade on from the GFC, global equity and bond markets are once again smouldering!
Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. Featuring a Faculty of 20+ leading investment thinkers from around the world, it will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets (geopolitical, economic and asset class), and the opportunities and risks ahead, on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and in building better quality investor portfolios!
Register now!

Finology Summit 2019 - Investing beliefs, biases & behaviours
Wed-Thu 20-21 February 2019, Sydney | 13 to 19 CE hrs
Finology Summit is THE behavioural finance ("fin") and investment psychology ("ology") program of the year.
Featuring an exceptional faculty of experts, it will help you better understand
how your own and other people's different beliefs, biases and behaviours around investing impact on investment markets - and influence portfolio construction philosophy and practices - to help you build better quality investor portfolios.
Register now!


Overestimating the EU economy
If the EU were a soccer team, it would not lose games for lack of a plan or inadequate capacity. The problem is that the team is not playing cohesively, and the top players are struggling individually.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz |

China will be a high-tech global power within two decades
The People's Republic of China (PRC) invests heavily in high technology research. While the world will certainly benefit from the PRC's technological ambition, it also has challenging implications.
Linda Jakobson, China Matters | 0.25 CE |

Investment risk has nothing to do with benchmarks
To future-proof portfolios, investors looking to maximise returns should regard risk simply as the risk of losing money and in turn, best manage this risk by taking a long-term time horizon.
David Gait, Stewart Investors | 0.50 CE |

Markets | Finology
Research Review: The Donald's impact on markets; Robo-advice & investor behaviour
A recent research paper looks at the impact of "The Donald" on markets, while a second examines the impact of robo-advice on investor behaviour.
Ron Bird, University of Technology Sydney | 1.00 CE |

Earnings yield as an estimate for expected return
This paper studies the long-term returns of US equities to determine whether earnings yield is a reasonably reliable estimate of forward real returns. Understanding the interplay of growth, value and yield provides a framework for assessing investments.
Douglas Isles, Platinum Asset Management |

Silent inflation
An inflation target of a few percentage points may seem to promote stability - but we need to consider that it may have the opposite effect on the stability of our judgments.
Robert J. Shiller, Yale University |

What exactly is a balanced fund?
Investors are entitled to believe that the industry has standards so that they can compare like with like - but obviously that's not the case.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's | 2 comments |

Philosophy | Markets
Are markets efficient?
This view has dominated finance theory for the last 50 years or so. But prices change because people trade, and those trades leave behind a trace of all the behavioural biases people bring.
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Capital Fund Management | 1.00 CE |

Good governance is a strong amplifier of small cap performance
Many of Australia's small companies are potential future leaders. A sharp focus on corporate governance can assist in identifying those high quality, sustainable businesses that can last the distance.
Michelle Lopez, Aberdeen Standard Investments | 0.50 CE |

ABS are now more "Moneyball" than "Big Short"
Global Asset Back Securities were directly tested and survived the challenges of 2008. In this rising rate environment, they are well placed to help "future-proof" portfolios.
Richard Quin, Bentham Asset Management | 0.25 CE |


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