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PortfolioConstruction Forum







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Friday 7 July 2017

Specialist, independent investment continuing education & certification

Fodder starts with a new paper from Dr Bob Gay on why, as the Fed weans itself from past discretionary actions and shifts back towards its usual rules-based framework for decision-making, they are no longer relevant. Harvard University Prof Dani Rodrik explains why this G20 meeting will be the most interesting for years.  Michael Edesess analyses whether it's true that studies of "investor return" vs "investment return" prove the conventional wisdom that individuals underperform the investments they invest in. And finally, we feature two video presentations from recent Forum programs. In the first, Standard Life Investments' Andrew Milligan explains where investment opportunities lie in a "low" growth world. And in the second, Invesco's Jeff Reemer explains why bonds are "the walking dead".
All the best for another great week's continuing education - Graham
Register now for PortfolioConstruction Forum Strategies Conference 2017 (23-24 August) - It all adds up!


The important thing is not to stop questioning. - Albert Einstein


Policy rules versus discretion
The use of discretion in setting monetary policy has had a somewhat checkered history. Ironically, the debate about rules versus discretion is just heating up as the FOMC sets a steady course for unwinding its extraordinary policy measures.
Dr Robert Gay, Fenwick Advisers |

The G20's misguided globalism
This year's G20 summit in Hamburg promises to be among the more interesting in recent years. The knee-jerk globalism that suffuses G20 meetings feeds into the populists' narrative.
Dani Rodrik, Harvard University

What do we know about investor irrationality?
It has become conventional wisdom that underperformance is due to the irrational investment behavior of individuals. It is time to question whether the conventional wisdom has even a scintilla of meaning.
Michael Edesess, EDHEC-Risk Institute |

Cycles in a low growth world
In a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate and low yield environment, a cyclical economic upturn presents opportunities in asset classes such as equities and real estate.
Andrew Milligan, Standard Life Investments |

Markets | Investing
Bonds are the "walking dead" - time to rotate into loans
Bond investors have enjoyed a multi-decade bull run in yields, fuelled by unsustainable post-GFC stimulus, but "the times they are a-changing".
Jeffrey Reemer, Invesco |

The changing world
The economic world has not changed - it is like gravity. The current outcome (e.g. low interest rates) has changed because the relative inputs are different...
Michael Chamberlain, MCA NZ
| More

Demographics seem to be the key
I suspect that you are right and that slowing demographics are behind the slowing of growth and low interest rates...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
| More


Interest rates are artificially low?
Yes, rates are unusually low. But to describe that as unnatural shows a lack of understanding about how the world works and a refusal to accept that maybe the world has changed.
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's  |
9 comments | More

Another lesson from Japan
We ignore history at great peril. The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all.
Stephen Roach, Yale University |

Strategies | Finology
Buying happiness and satisfaction with greater cash reserves
The classic view of cash in the world of investing is that it's something to minimise. But a recent study found that we're just not content without a healthy allocation to cash.
Michael Kitces, Nerd's Eye View |

Politics and stock returns
Analysis of five international stock markets shows no correlation between stock returns and the political party in power.
Rob Arnott
, Research Affilates |

Markets | Strategies
Trump the game changer - the only certainty now is uncertainty
2017 will present many risks and opportunities, as the winds of change sweep through the global economy and markets. Geopolitics will dominate. The only certainty for 2017 is uncertainty.
Stephen Halmarick, CFSGAM | 0.25 CE |
3 comments | More

Are assets overvalued?
...Surely, if interest rates are low, it is because future growth expectations are also low, begging the question, why would you pay more for equities (a growth asset) in such a low growth environment?
James Waggett, Waggett Wealth Advice
| More

Does low growth mean low returns from growth assets?
Not necessarily. Since the GFC, the Australian economy has grown faster than that of the US but EPS have grown much more slowly in Australia than in the US...
Tim Farrelly, farrelly's
| More


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