The world changed in January 2025 with Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president. Shortly after taking office, Trump threw a hand grenade into the engine room of the global economy with his Liberation Day tariffs. Yet the 47th president of the United States is transactional, not ideological, and by the end of 2025 the US had reached a trade deal with China. While the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may be over, an artificial intelligence and electrification arms race is in full swing. This battle is creating a complex economic environment in 2026, with huge capital investment by technology majors boosting both growth and inflation, while cheap Chinese exports and crude oil weigh on consumer prices. Meanwhile, Wall Street is likely to test the resolve of incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh later this year, further fuelling the prospects for market volatility. We are living in an age of exponential change and radical uncertainty, turbo-charged by rapid advancements in AI. We must prepare ourselves (and our portfolios) for the seismic societal and economic shocks that are hurtling our way – we’re witnessing the mother of all disruptions.

As we progress through the Trumpification of markets, the political and information prism through which we view the world will help us mind the gap(s) between market perception and investing reality.

Jonathan Pain, Author and Publisher of The Pain Report, is a regular key note presenter at Portfolio Construction Forum's continuing education programs. Over the years, he has debuted new investment theses and challenged delegates about how to build better quality investor portfolios...

With heightened global geopolitical risks, reduced fiscal support from governments, a deflating Chinese property bubble, and an ongoing US commercial real estate crisis, 2024 is a year for investors to be nimble and tactical.

As the clouds of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity continue to swirl, the silver lining is that we are on the road back to normal monetary policy settings, from abnormal, and a return to more rational asset prices. But we must be patient.

Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing "The days of abnormal monetary policy are over", Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a food and energy crisis while declining consumer sentiment and Chinese lockdowns provide headwinds to growth.

With US inflation at a 40-year high, and the housing and labour markets red hot, the US Fed has finally taken a distinct and meaningful step forward on the path back to normal. Investors need to accept that the days of abnormal monetary policy are over.

The herculean tug of war between stronger economic growth and higher bond yields will be the defining battleground of 2021 and will be accompanied by violent and rapid-fire recalibrations of relative valuations.

We are at the half way mark for 2020, and every fibre of my being tells me that the next six months will see many more extraordinary events. Covid-19 can be seen as the great accelerant, or amplifier.

On Monday, the US central bank acted with stunning shock and awe. Then, government after government announced the biggest fiscal support packages ever seen in history. All of which begs the billion dollar question - sorry, multi, multi trillion dollar question. Are we out of the woods?

The market has now woken up to the size of the traumatic shock to the global economy, which just hit a massive air pocket. In the next few weeks, financial markets and the broad capital markets will come under severe stress. How does this end?

Coronavirus represents a Black Swan event, the economic shock of which to China will reverberate around the world, thereby amplifying and exposing global economic weaknesses.

Two of the defining characteristics of the global investment landscape over the last 30 years are being reversed - globalisation (by economic nationalism) and finalisation (as we've reached peak debt).

A combination of factors is set to generate an unexpected inflationary shock to the financial markets, leading to significantly higher bond yields and a recalibration of relative valuations.

The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

The tectonic plates of the political and economic landscape are rupturing. Brace yourselves for a wild and entertaining ride...

Should we just keep our heads down and treat political events as nothing more than noise? 2017 is going to be a year when politics does matter. In fact, it always has.

Trump offered entertainment, Clinton a documentary. Entertainment trumps facts every time. Now we need to re-calibrate portfolios to reflect the new fiscal and economic reality of a Trump Presidency.

Quite a few investors think that the current decline in equity markets is analogous to 2011, which we remember as the depths of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Do you think the current environment is like 2011? I don't.

Many people have written to me in recent months and asked whether I believe this is yet another 2008. In my view, there are many significant differences. But I'm afraid we're set for some extreme volatility in the months, if not the years, ahead.