In every way, it is different this time

Jonathan Pain  |  The Pain Report  |  22 February 2023  |  0.50 CE

Volatility? Yes. Uncertainty? Always. Complexity? Definitely. Ambiguity? No! There’s nothing ambiguous about the data. Inflation is slowing and we are close to the end of one of the most dramatic tightening cycles in history. Bond markets see central banks cutting rates in 2023. But even if rates do fall this year, the outlook for earnings and economic growth is weak, and both Europe and America likely face recession. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are ballooning, as autocracies more forcefully challenge the liberal world order established after the Second World War. As the clo...

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