For much of 2026, the expansion of AI infrastructure helped support corporate profitability, economic activity and equity valuations. Now, the possibility that financing constraints could slow that investment is beginning to influence the pricing of assets well beyond the technology sector.

Food for thought and CE from Portfolio Construction Forum

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By concentrating wealth and economic opportunities in a few cities while destroying the low-cost jobs that have historically fueled global development, AI could end up making much of the world poorer and more divided.

The early earnings season confirms that the American economy retains considerable resilience. Yet financial markets are becoming considerably more selective about what constitutes a good result.

Food for thought and CE from Portfolio Construction Forum

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The most consequential development in financial markets is becoming the competition for capital. Governments are borrowing heavily, technology companies are raising extraordinary sums. … all while long-term government bond yields are approaching levels not seen in more than two decades.

Food for thought and CE from Portfolio Construction Forum

The most revealing market development this week was the response to better news. The week’s softer inflation and employment figures were useful. The failure of long-term yields to respond durably was more consequential.

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Food for thought and CE from Portfolio Construction Forum

The current regime is defined by a wide distribution of macro outcomes - and the risk that the next drawdown impairs government bonds, the asset expected to cushion portfolios. The solution is not to abandon government bonds, it is to broaden sources of defence and return.

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The market has entered an unusual phase. Growth is still relatively strong. Earnings remain supportive. AI investment remains powerful. The hurdle rate for almost every investment is rising. This is not yet a conventional risk-off environment. It is a repricing of what capital is worth.

AI remains one of the strongest investment cycles in the global economy. That strength is precisely why the macro consequences are becoming more important. AI is becoming a macro cycle because it is large enough to influence growth, inflation, labour, energy and the price of capital simultaneously.