China is a glass both half full and half empty. It will continue to grow and become a great superpower, but its future growth rate will be significantly lower than President Xi's "new normal" 6% forecast.

We should acknowledge the Greek crisis for what it is - the death-knell for the European dream of empire. The growing reality is the return of borders, national preferences, and opt-outs. The euro has become a structurally weak currency and European bonds are likely to underperform those of other, nonshrinking, empires.

Despite all the negative ink that's been spilt over the recent collapse in Chinese equities, we continue to believe that a year from now there will be more marginal buyers of Chinese equities than today.

Understanding PETS - Political, Environmental, Technological/Scientific, Social - factors is relevant, if not crucial, to us as citizens. But to what extent are they relevant or important to investing?

Greece's creditors are likely to find it very difficult to compromise. Capitulate today and Greece will be back for more concessions in future. Many politicians will want to draw the line here and now, making Grexit highly likely.

Recent reports covering IOOF have, in my view, widely missed the mark. The media, politicians and industry participants who have helped propel what to me looks like a witch-hunt need to stop and think.

The current focus on the downpour in Greece is understandable. But we should not be so distracted that we fail to prepare for two other possible storms – and the possibility that they converge into a perfect storm.

As always, PortfolioConstruction Forum Symposium is the highlight of my year in terms of professional development. This year's was probably the best to date. Here are the key takeouts I sent to my clients.

I am convinced that both economies and markets are reaching a point of transition where one of two discrete outcomes is likely. Portfolios must offer the potential for reasonable performance in either eventuality.

In 2015, currencies will basically drive the outperformance candidates as economies try to steal growth from each other. Plus, there is a decade-long mania candidate - healthcare.

Macro liquidity is feeding asset booms and bubbles in equity, bond, and other asset markets. As more investors pile into overvalued, increasingly illiquid assets – such as bonds – the risk of a long-term crash increases.

We now have enough history to determine who the winners were from 25 years of globalisation. The answer? Small countries. The investment conclusion is obvious - overweight good companies listed in small countries.

This week, Portugal's sovereign bonds traded on negative yield - flying in the face of any sensible assessment of credit risk. There seems to be little chance that the ECB's belated and oversized QE program will end gracefully. Policy blunders never do.

In this environment, what’s very important is capital preservation. The problem investors have is that there are very few places to hide. So, while cash may not be king, I think it could end up being a very handsome prince.

I think we have seen the low in European bond yields and that we have commenced on the path - at long last - of secular reflation.

The collapse in oil prices in the second half of 2014 is very large in a historical context. This paper explores the implications for portfolios.

Lower oil prices and a wave of monetary policy accommodation are a net positive for the global economy, but there are losers as well as winners, especially in some emerging market economies.

I have a sense of a secular bull market ending with a whimper, not a bang. Only the timing is in doubt. Because of this, I have increasingly a great unrest. You should too.

To maintain "no taxation, no representation" deal with its people, China's leadership seems to be going down a path that'd see index funds as forced buyers of Chinese equities.

In Fodder this week - Jack Gray on unknown unknowns plus low interest rates with Tim Farrelly, Bob Gay and Rob Mead