Despite increasing global political risk, the probability of outright war is paradoxically lower than it might have been at any previous period in history.

Despite proliferating geopolitical risks, global financial markets have reached new heights. Markets have trouble pricing "black swan" events, the "unknown unknowns" that are unlikely, but extremely costly.

Factor investing has its foundation in the empirical studies of EMH. Via ETFs, we now live in a world where the possibility of factor investing is available to almost everyone. Three recent papers are useful in exploring further.

In a world of risk-on/risk-off investing, it is important for investors to know where true risks lie and where they do not lie. In fact, macroeconomic risk has decreased by well over 80% during the eight decades.

This paper presents evidence to suggest that an allocation to impact investments can contribute potential portfolio benefits from the risk-return profile and low correlation with other asset classes.

In a century of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, typically, the Fed has tightened too much and/or for too long. The current tightening cycle will not end any differently.

The pendulum of world economic growth has swung - by 2018, the developing countries will have a greater share of world GDP (59%) than developed countries (41%). New? Absolutely. Normal? Not even close.

Can clients easily change their behaviour? The theory of planned behaviour can help to promote real change and convert intentions into outcomes.

From 2017, instead of the two-day Symposium in Auckland each May, our NZ members have choice across five program days - including the one-day, by invitation-only Masterclass NZ in Auckland in June, for a strictly limited number of senior investment practitioners.

The IMCA Au Seminar 3 2017 (5 & 28 April) has been assessed and accredited by PortfolioConstruction Forum for Forum CE hours. These can be used to help meet the CE/CPD requirements of 15 regulators, associations, institutes and designations – including ASIC RG104/105/146 requirements and CIMA certificants’ CE commitment. Delegates must attest their attendance in order to receive CE acceditation.

This week Fodder kicks off with an analysis of the first round of the French presidential election, and what an (increasingly likely) Emmanuel Macron-led France would mean. Then we turn to three offerings from Dr Bob Gay, Brett Lewthwaite and PIMCO's Jamil Baz, on debt markets and investments. Finally, Professor Jo Earl's top 5-rated Finology Summit session, on how to get clients (ourselves, for that matter) to turn good intentions into action.

This week Fodder kicks off with an analysis of the first round of the French presidential election, and what an (increasingly likely) Emmanuel Macron-led France would mean. Then we turn to three offerings from Dr Bob Gay, Brett Lewthwaite and PIMCO's Jamil Baz, on debt markets and investments. Finally, Professor Jo Earl's top 5-rated Finology Summit session, on how to get clients (ourselves, for that matter) to turn good intentions into action.

Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. This paper revisits this discussion finding that, unlike their stock counterparts, active bond mutual funds have largely outperformed their median passive peers over the sample period.

The Fed's talk of a symmetrical inflation goal played well to markets when they were in the throes of the reflation trade. Markets are now flipping to the conclusion that transparency amounts to dovish policy.

The IMCA Au Seminar 2 2017 (4 & 19 April) has been assessed and accredited by PortfolioConstruction Forum for Forum CE hours. These can be used to help meet the CE/CPD requirements of 15 regulators, associations, institutes and designations – including ASIC RG104/105/146 requirements and CIMA certificants’ CE commitment. Delegates must attest their attendance in order to receive CE acceditation.

This week's Fodder offers two perspectives, from Linda Jakobson and Prof Barry Eichengreen, on the issue of China/US relations under a Trump presidency. Tim Farrelly then looks at how likely US equities are to return 8% per annum going forward given their current valuation. UTS Prof Ron Bird summarises three recent academic research papers and we feature Michael Kitces's top rated presentation from our recent Finology Summit.

This week's Fodder offers two perspectives, from Linda Jakobson and Prof Barry Eichengreen, on the issue of China/US relations under a Trump presidency. Tim Farrelly then looks at how likely US equities are to return 8% per annum going forward given their current valuation. UTS Prof Ron Bird summarises three recent academic research papers and we feature Michael Kitces's top rated presentation from our recent Finology Summit.

The market is expecting a big pick-up in earnings from Trump's business friendly tax cuts, deregulation and an infrastructure spending boom. But will it be enough?

Do professional investors do better when investing on their own behalf? What is the relationship between the remuneration of professional investors and performance? What role to gender and age play in the use of ETFs?

Short-term thinking in finance is nothing new. The benefits of long-term investing extend beyond just being able to invest in illiquid assets. Patience can pay its own dividend.