Predicting the future raises a significant number of issues when creating an investment plan. Monte Carlo simulations will illuminate the nature of that uncertainty, but only if those using them understand how it should be applied – and its limitations.

The lack of response at the zero bound of policy interest rates is hardly surprising. In fact, it is strikingly reminiscent of the so-called liquidity trap of the 1930s. What is particularly disconcerting is that central bankers remain largely in denial.

Using a simple case study, this paper illustrates an approach to cutting through fund performance "noise" to find the signal - the bigger picture investment view that enables us to construct better investment portfolios.

Zero, and especially negative, nominal interest rates are a fool's game. We are entering the late phase of an ageing expansion when asset price bubbles and poor credit decisions sow the seeds of the next crisis.

Conference 2016 delivered 50+ high conviction ideas on how to manage the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives. Here are the key takeouts.

Conference 2016 featured a stellar lineup of international and local experts offering their best high conviction idea/thesis around the the friction between short-term and long-term investing imperatives - and the portfolio construction decisions that must be made.

Most investors don't experience the same returns of the portfolio or fund they are invested in. Investment discipline is the key - not emotion, not market noise - to ensuring you arrive at your planned investment destination.

Real assets including real estate have overinflated valuations. Investors need to understand the frame work necessary to manage the trade-off between shorter term returns and longer term risks.

With global yields at record lows, bond market Cassandras proclaim the formation of a supernova, warning of the investment perils. It's time to spurn that talk, and stick with the core, defensive anchor provided by global fixed income.

With most market participants distracted by short-term noise or focused on mean reversion of long-term valuations, the gap in the middle is an under-researched and fertile hunting ground.

This panel debated the high conviction thesis that the key geopolitical risk of the times is tension between China, the US and South East Asian countries, as well as the impact of the US election on markets.

Australian banks face a number of headwinds - they are real, but could better be described as zephyrs. The market has overreacted. Buy the banks.

Many SMSF portfolios are inefficient - creating an opportunity to either increase returns for the current level of risk or reduce risk to achieve existing returns over the shorter term.

Rapid technological innovation, affordable communication, and demographic shifts are reshaping the world. The traditional country/regional approach to asset allocation is not optimal for capturing these new opportunities.

Data overfitting is a well known problem and one would expect clever statisticians and scientists not to succumb to its temptations. But "meta-overfitting" may be endemic in finance.

Rather than adopting a set-and-forget approach, long-term investors should be engaged asset owners and take a broader perspective on risk, in order to achieve sustainable investment returns.

A new breed of companies – creative, nimble and networked – offer a powerful investment opportunity. Investors need to consider diversifying domestic exposures to access this set of long-term opportunities.

Amongst fundamental managers, it is critical to distinction those that are genuinely active and achieve high active share and tracking error through generating idiosyncratic returns.

Critics charge that liquid alternative funds may not provide exposure to quality hedge fund managers and exhibit lower performance potential. This paper examines those concerns.

Maintaining a solid level of income for the retiree must remain at the forefront of thinking and a move up the risk spectrum into equities provides a solution.