The predictable downward revision cycle for the global economic outlook has officially begun. The revision by the IMF, largely in response to the war in Ukraine, is a big one...

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Inflation's return marks a tipping point. A lot of wishful thinking will have to be abandoned, starting with the idea that governments can borrow or print as much money as they need to spray at every problem.

The global economy has suffered two large negative supply-side shocks - first from the Covid-19 pandemic and now from Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine - exacerbating stagflationary conditions.

Many expect that the end of the pandemic, reopening of economies, tight labour markets and excess consumer savings will push markets higher. Proceed with caution, the best offence is a great defence.

Established in 2009, Portfolio Construction Forum Markets Summit is THE investment markets scene setter of the year. With interest rates near historical lows and asset prices around all-time highs, practitioners are grappling with the defensive side of multi-asset portfolios. Downside protection is essential in such an uncertain environment. Arguably, the best offence is a great defence! Markets Summit will help you better understand the key drivers of and outlook for the markets, and the opportunities and risks ahead on a three- to five-year view, to aid your search for return and to help them build better quality investor portfolios.

The past half-century brought about a world that's globalised, centralised, and stratified. Now, the pendulum is swinging the other way. Everywhere, a new economic order is taking shape as we enter an era of more inclusive and sustainable localisation, bringing wealth back home. As we shift to a bipolar or tripolar world, practitioners must understand the implications for different asset classes, sectors and geographies.

2021 turned out to be a relatively positive year for economies and markets in most parts of the world. But investors are likely to remain on the edge of their seats for most of 2022.

As governments become accustomed to spending vast sums of money and workers regain their bargaining power, the short-term inflationary pressures attributed to Covid-19 will bleed into a longer period of higher inflation.

Key officials at the US Federal Reserve have finally acknowledged that they mischaracterised an inflationary surge that has proven larger and more persistent than they expected. The Fed must now follow up by doing two things quickly.

International organisations are currently plagued by allegations of powerful states wielding undue influence over outcomes. But their clout does not render multilateralism impossible.

After initially and persistently misreading US inflation dynamics, more Fed officials are now starting to come to grips with the situation. The Fed would be well advised to catch up even faster.

How will the global economy and markets evolve over the next year? There are four scenarios that could follow the mild stagflation of the last few months.

Demand and supply dynamics could lead to 1970s-style stagflation (rising inflation amid a recession) and eventually even to a severe debt crisis.

Three economists describe and debate three plausible, forward-looking economic and market scenarios that have a reasonable probability of occurring during the next two to three years.

The stagflation of the 1970s will soon meet the debt crises of the post-2008 period. The question is not if but when.

A large and growing body of commentators is warning about the very real possibility - if not outright likelihood - of policymakers unwittingly letting the inflation genie out of the bottle.

I have long been haunted by the inflation of the 1970s. Fifty years ago, I was witness to the birth of the Great Inflation as a Fed insider. This isn't the 1970s, but today's Fed waxes far too confidently about inflation.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.

What's new with our live and on-demand continuing education, accreditation and certification programs.