Forum Fodder

Forum Fodder | Friday 30 April 2021
“The Biden administration is taking a whole-of-government approach to aggressively tackle climate change. My goal, at Treasury, is to support this work with a whole-of-economy approach.” - Janet Yellen, US Treasury secretary, in remarks to the Institute of International Finance (21 April 2021)
All the best for another week’s continuing education!
Graham

Markets

My worst forecasting mistake
I should have known better when I came off the bench as a retired forecaster last summer and penned a piece with the now memorable title of “America’s Coming Double Dip”.
Stephen Roach, Yale University | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

Don’t be complacent, take advantage of the illiquidity premium
The illiquidity premium offers strong value over the cyclical horizon. A combination of interest rate, credit and illiquidity risks provide diversified fixed income exposures with attractive return potential.
Rob Mead, PIMCO | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

A portfolio’s cash allocation is dead
Structural factors will ensure that the cash rate cannot rise over the medium term, resulting in negligible cash returns. A core fixed income exposure consisting of Australian government bonds will outperform cash over the long term.
Chris Rands, Nikko Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

The world has entered a new investment order
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate and is transforming macroeconomic policy, geopolitics and sustainability.
Ben Powell, BlackRock | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

High equity valuations are not due to irrational exuberance
Fiscal stimulus and the vaccine have fuelled an extraordinary rally in equities - but, ultimately, stocks are at record highs because of extraordinarily low market interest rates. Investors should be wary of inflation, but also of being underweight equities.
Arvid Streimann, Magellan Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets

Stagflation?
Excellent! Written on an analytic basis not a “buy stocks” basis. I find Dr. Nouriel Roubini an interesting character, sometimes on mark and other times definitely off mark.
Craig Offenhauser, Charter Pacific Securities | Read

Portfolio Construction Forum proudly supports The Wayside Chapel

When we aren’t looking
When you see it, it’s startling to realise that most of us, most of the time, live in a world of routine; a kind of ‘business as usual’. This is a healthy outlook except that it also means we are blind to some of the most precious moments that life delivers…
Jon Owen, Wayside Chapel | Read

Finology | Invitation to investment advisers

Complimentary self-assessment to benchmark your Client Care & Practice knowledge and skills
FASEA requires that financial advisers continually improve their client care and practice knowledge and skills - doing so makes obvious business sense, as well. Our new Finology Benchmarking Indices (FBI) self assessment tool helps you benchmark your investing biases, beliefs and behaviours versus peers, to further empower your “client care and practice” knowledge and skills. It’s complimentary to our members who give investment advice, while we continue to develop it.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 0.50 CE | Take the FBI self-assessment

Finology

Finology Summit 2021 “Behavioural FINance and investor psychOLOGY” | AEST Wed 19 May 2021
Established in 2016, Finology Summit is THE behavioural finance (“fin”) and investment psychology (“ology”) program of the year. The program features an exceptional Faculty of experts from around the world, each offering their best high conviction ideas on behavioural finance and/or investor psychology, and the investment implications. Finology knowledge and skills help us better identify and understand how our own and other people’s different investing biases, beliefs and behaviours impact investment markets and portfolio construction practices - and therefore, investment outcomes - to enable better quality investor portfolios.
Attend live in-studio or via livestream! | 7-11 CE | Register now!

Philosophy | Markets

What three economists taught us about currency regimes
A generation of great international economists is passing from the scene. Richard Cooper, Robert Mundell and John Williamson each made important contributions on a variety of topics including to the ongoing debate about optimal currency arrangements.
Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University | Read

Markets | Rated #1 seen at Markets Summit 2021

Risk must beat reward in post-pandemic supply chains
Supply chain decision makers must continue to focus on mitigating risk in 2021, not maximising growth. Political risks outbalance opportunities.
Chris Rogers, Panjiva Research | 0.50 CE | Read, Watch, Listen

Markets

The Long View: Inflationary riptide or reflationary current?
With a healthy consumer, accommodative policy, accelerating GDP and the potential for herd immunity from Covid-19, the risk of a US inflationary overshoot has increased. We believe any inflation scare, however, will be short-lived.
Jeff Schulze, ClearBridge Investments | 0.50 CE | Read

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

The time is right for non-daily liquid credit strategies
Rather than accepting lower returns for liquidity, investors should go back to the drawing board and re-assess their need for daily liquidity.
Peter Robinson, CIP Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Finology

Research Review: How investors’ beliefs are shaped by experience
These two papers provide useful insights into how investors’ attitudes and behaviours evolve over time, and how our beliefs are distorted if we experience positive or negative prior returns.
Rob Hamshar, Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.00 CE | Read

Markets

Is stagflation coming?
There is a growing debate about whether the inflation that will arise over the next few months will be temporary, reflecting the sharp bounce-back from the Covid-19 recession, or persistent, reflecting both demand-pull and cost-push factors.
Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Macro Associates | 1 comment | Read

Philosophy | Markets | Strategies | Investing | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

Back to the drawing board! - Key takeouts
Our diverse panel debated which of the high-conviction propositions they heard at Markets Summit 2021 resonated most strongly, which they disagreed with most - and the portfolio construction implications.
Markets Summit 2021 Expert Panel | 0.75 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | Strategies | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

US equities valuations are not in a bubble
The consensus view that US equities are in a bubble is overblown. Go back to the drawing board when it comes to your views on US valuations - because this time IS different.
Jeff Schulze, ClearBridge Investments | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Markets | As seen at Markets Summit 2021

Secular stagnation is the wrong narrative
Those who cling to yesterday’s narrative may forego one of the great trades of recent decades as the world shifts to a “global reopening” narrative and away from one of “secular stagnation”.
Julian McCormack, Platinum Asset Management | 0.50 CE | Watch, Listen

Investing

Research Roundtable - Colchester Global Government Bonds
This Research Roundtable focused on the Colchester Global Government Bonds strategy, with senior practitioners deciding, after briefings, Q&A and debate, their individual rating for the strategy and whether to include it on a hypothetical APL and/or multi-manager portfolios. Afterwards, the meeting is synthesised and published for on-demand viewing by all members.
Portfolio Construction Forum | 1.50 CE | Read, Watch

Forum CE Library - over 575 CE/CPD accredited learning resources
Complimentary for all Forum members, the Forum’s online on-demand CE Library offers over 540 CE/CPD hours of accredited learning resources, to help members meet the CE/CPD requirements of 20 governing bodies (regulators, associations, and institutes) including ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, AFA, FPA and CIMA^® CE/CPD requirements, to name a few.
Earn CE/CPD hours

Forum CIMA CE Library - over 75 CE hours
This subset of the full Forum CE Library features just those learning resources that are accredited for CIMA CE hours, so CIMA certificants can more easily find learning resources to meet their recertification obligation (at the same time as meeting the CE/CPD requirements of other governing bodies e.g. ASIC, APRA, FASEA, FMA, etc).
Earn CIMA CE hours

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We also let my LinkedIn network know as soon as we release new articles on portfolioconstructionforum.edu.au and when registration opens for our face-to-face CE programs. If LinkedIn is more your thing than Twitter, I’d welcome you connecting. And of course, I’d welcome having an offline direct conversation with you any time.