COVID-19 threatens both medical and economic disaster. While it may be too late to avert a public-health crisis, unlike the medical effects of the virus, the economic impact is easy to predict and overcome.

Ten risks could cause the most economic and financial trouble in 2020. But these are not predictions - continuing global expansion is more probable than any combination of these setbacks.

Central bankers and senior economic officials now almost unanimously believe that monetary policy has reached its limits.

If you believe the UK is turning into populist Zimbabwe or Venezuela, you should expect a no-deal Brexit. Otherwise, forget about it.

With Wall Street hitting all-time highs and the US economy certain to set a record in June, the question is whether this is a resumption of the bull market or only a temporary bounce.

Around the world, populist economic policy seems to be in retreat. Even in Britain, a majority support a “meaningful vote” on whether the final deal with Europe is genuinely better than staying in the EU.

It is tempting to ask whether markets have entered a period of "irrational exuberance" and are heading for a fall. The answer is probably no.

Next month will mark the tenth anniversary of the GFC. Why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since?

The economic theories of the pre-crisis period – rational expectations, efficient markets, and the neutrality of money – must be revised. Politicians must encourage a revolution in economic thinking.

Among the many challenges facing the EU - refugees, populist politics, German-inspired austerity, government bankruptcy in Greece and perhaps Portugal - one crisis is well on its way to resolution. Britain will not vote to leave the EU.

The US Fed is near-certain to start its tightening cycle on 16 December. Apart from praising Yellen for consistency and foresight (instead of castigating her for confusion and indecisiveness), how should investors react?

Yellen has confirmed what should have been obvious all along - the Fed is not indifferent to international financial stress and its risk-management approach remains strongly biased in favour of "lower for longer". But four things about US monetary policy are frequently misunderstood.

If you want to understand falling oil prices, forget Chinese consumption and focus on Middle East production. And, if you want to understand the world economy, forget about stock markets - focus on the fact that cheap oil always boosts global growth.

Contrary to most of headlines, the astonishing weekend events in Greece will almost certainly prove bullish for risk assets around the world and especially in Europe.

The US dollar is hitting new 12-year highs almost daily and the euro seems to be plunging to below parity. But there are at least four factors pressuring it the other way.

Gridlock may be perfectly acceptable in Washington these days - but Europe, like Japan, now badly needs strong political leadership.

Today is much less reminiscent of 2007, when global equity prices were at similar levels to today, than of 1987. But it seems too early for investors to panic, or even reduce risk.

Over the next year or two, asset prices will no longer be driven by economic stats and monetary policy. Three major rotations are likely to continue and gather pace.

If Scotland does vote for independence, it's hard to come up with a positive scenario for British assets.

A big correction in equities, if it hits in the next year or two, is unlikely to be caused by monetary policy expectations.